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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −151.81₴

Invest at least 534.53₴

Average return 382.72₴

ROI −28.4%

Chance of profit 24%

With float: invest at least 534.53 ₴, profit at most −151.81 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

63.22 ₴

at 31.61

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

90.46 ₴

at 18.09

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

75.83 ₴

at 25.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 229.51 ₴ +153.21 (+66.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −109 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0772

113.71 ₴

at 28.43

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

158.06 ₴

at 31.61

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1707

11.61 ₴

at 11.61

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 283.38 ₴ +28.20 (+9.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −78 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0771

56.86 ₴

at 28.43

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

189.67 ₴

at 31.61

Steam

×2

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1704

23.22 ₴

at 11.61

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 269.75 ₴ +51.99 (+19.3%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 68%
Losing outcome 32%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

1 040.04 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

323.86 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

134.93 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

355.18 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

246.79 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

831.86 ₴ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

368.90 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

236.96 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

48.63 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +85.68 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +134.09 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 13 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2791136 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 164.58₴ · invest 248.39₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2794609 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 162.09₴ · invest 221.48₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2770526 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 156.95₴ · invest 244.51₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2797260 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 155.75₴ · invest 220.85₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2777314 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 154.54₴ · invest 215.09₴
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074161 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074161 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2796252 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 153.90₴ · invest 231.42₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2766681 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 148.00₴ · invest 232.51₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2774223 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 147.51₴ · invest 221.09₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2795505 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 146.95₴ · invest 208.61₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2790585 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 146.81₴ · invest 242.19₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2778175 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 143.05₴ · invest 254.67₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2797865 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 142.23₴ · invest 211.76₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2794610 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 124.31₴ · invest 206.48₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear), Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New), XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New), XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074069 instead of 0.074468

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build