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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit at most · with float −470.98₽

Invest at least 1 845.61₽

Average return 1 374.64₽

ROI −25.5%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 1 845.61 ₽, profit at most −470.98 ₽

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

235.12 ₽

at 58.78

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

188.19 ₽

at 62.73

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

382.41 ₽

at 127.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 805.72 ₽ +568.92 (+70.6%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

58.78 ₽

at 58.78

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1659

125.46 ₽

at 62.73

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

892.29 ₽

at 127.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 076.53 ₽ +827.05 (+76.8%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

293.90 ₽

at 58.78

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1654

188.19 ₽

at 62.73

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

254.94 ₽

at 127.47

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 737.03 ₽ +461.29 (+62.6%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

630.26 ₽ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 453.00 ₽ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

2 309.54 ₽ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

174.70 ₽ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

458.90 ₽ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

145.45 ₽ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.045499

685.94 ₽ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

440.61 ₽ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.184624

90.42 ₽ 8.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +281.11 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +438.65 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2794767 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 569.57₽ · invest 699.68₽
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162624 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074391 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2761984 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 554.72₽ · invest 805.87₽
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162942 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074501 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2794765 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 549.45₽ · invest 623.52₽
rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163623 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074738 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2791281 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 538.20₽ · invest 824.70₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Traction (Minimal Wear), Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163640 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074744 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2770660 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 524.59₽ · invest 748.22₽
rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear), P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165050 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075235 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2798621 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 512.88₽ · invest 654.53₽
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164343 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074988 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2777518 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 491.38₽ · invest 669.98₽
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164479 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075036 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2784302 · The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 467.01₽ · invest 727.16₽
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) instead of nothing; P2000 | Handgun: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): 5 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): float at most 0.003520 instead of 0.003550; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161565 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074022 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2788462 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 449.91₽ · invest 638.85₽
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear), Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162898 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2774369 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 445.58₽ · invest 609.82₽
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162989 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074518 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2795263 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 441.52₽ · invest 715.80₽
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161707 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074072 instead of 0.074057

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build