The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −901.76$

Invest at least 1 353.12$

Average return 451.36$

ROI −66.6%

Chance of profit 5%

With float: invest at least 1 353.12 $, profit at most −901.76 $

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 21.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −299.12 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

232.62 $

at 232.62

Steam

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

359.69 $

at 89.92

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 592.31 $ −140.95 (−23.8%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 29%
Losing outcome 49%
Above the Steam cap 22%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

201.03 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

250.00 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

297.18 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 460.92 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 111.42 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

211.43 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

490.01 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

203.37 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

418.73 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

103.50 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

1 895.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

1 188.36 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 023.74 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 280.11 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 265.41 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

651.10 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

900.97 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 698.64 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 018.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 645.22 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −160.83 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −147.06 $ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2799747 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −140.95$ · invest 592.31$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2800733 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit −142.00$ · invest 560.09$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.008189
Craft 2800734 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −142.00$ · invest 560.09$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.008189
Craft 2799953 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −148.48$ · invest 504.69$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.008189
Craft 2799954 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −148.48$ · invest 504.69$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.008189

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build