The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit at most · with float −231.37$

Invest at least 951.03$

Average return 719.65$

ROI −24.3%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 951.03 $, profit at most −231.37 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −67 $

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −29.19 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0092

89.92 $

at 89.92

Steam

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0092

320.00 $

at 80.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 409.92 $ +309.73 (+75.6%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.7% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −158 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0091

179.84 $

at 89.92

Steam

×3

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0091

240.00 $

at 80.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 419.84 $ +199.29 (+47.5%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.5% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −248 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0089

269.76 $

at 89.92

Steam

×2

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0089

160.00 $

at 80.00

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 429.76 $ +88.85 (+20.7%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 31%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

268.59 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

978.81 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

265.99 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

320.02 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

959.22 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 118.10 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385.47 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 058.78 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 742.93 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

999.01 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 102.56 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 069.40 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

837.45 $ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 504.65 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

966.31 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

903.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

986.90 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

666.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 690.53 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

224.76 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 347.41 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

413.94 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

535.01 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

201.03 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

250.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

297.18 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 460.92 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 111.42 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

211.43 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

490.01 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

203.37 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

418.73 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

103.50 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Fracture Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +281.67 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +305.99 $ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Recoil Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2799649 · The Recoil Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 317.99$ · invest 453.01$
profit on prices without salesat least −46 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009587 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2799651 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 317.99$ · invest 453.01$
profit on prices without salesat least −46 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009587 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800919 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 311.43$ · invest 459.57$
profit on prices without salesat least −53 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.007467 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800920 · The Recoil Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 311.43$ · invest 459.57$
profit on prices without salesat least −53 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.007467 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800909 · The Recoil Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 309.73$ · invest 409.92$
profit on prices without salesat least −67 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2800717 · The Recoil Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 299.78$ · invest 520.40$
profit on prices without salesat least −97 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800719 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 299.78$ · invest 520.40$
profit on prices without salesat least −97 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800859 · The Recoil Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 294.94$ · invest 414.50$
profit on prices without salesat least −41 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009459 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800861 · The Prisma Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 294.94$ · invest 414.50$
profit on prices without salesat least −41 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009459 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800293 · The Recoil Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 293.54$ · invest 427.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −56 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009701 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800296 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 293.54$ · invest 427.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −56 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009701 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2799941 · The Recoil Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 293.30$ · invest 465.00$
profit on prices without salesat least −90 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.005255 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2799942 · The Chroma Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 293.30$ · invest 465.00$
profit on prices without salesat least −90 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.005255 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800689 · The Recoil Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 292.19$ · invest 396.75$
profit on prices without salesat least −49 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285
Craft 2800691 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 292.19$ · invest 396.75$
profit on prices without salesat least −49 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009285

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Recoil Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build