The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit · with float −51 408.59₸

Invest 170 900.80₸

Average return 119 492.21₸

ROI −30.1%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest 170 900.80 ₸, profit −51 408.59 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −86 312.30 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 4 contracts · medium (by listings)

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

any lot

88 991.20 ₸

at 88 991.20

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

any lot

80 699.10 ₸

at 20 174.77

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 169 690.29 ₸ −50 198.08 (−29.6%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.044608

128 934.55 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149402

152 417.99 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.557608

83 147.46 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.557608

62 763.43 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.557608

100 519.59 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

36 433.45 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

35 639.34 ₸ 6.15%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

93 587.85 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

34 013.62 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

36 693.60 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

38 094.32 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

63 104.04 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.044608

861 631.61 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149402

814 934.58 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.557608

316 989.76 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.557608

410 110.92 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.557608

426 286.43 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

240 166.39 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

255 848.79 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

265 745.34 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

311 959.51 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

193 436.32 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

311 959.51 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.472630

294 774.33 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

466 959.00 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −63 497.92 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −53 139.72 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2802646 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −47 215.12₸ · invest 169 690.29₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.380000; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.379999
Craft 2802654 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −47 215.12₸ · invest 169 690.29₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.379999; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2802647 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −50 198.08₸ · invest 169 690.29₸
sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2803281 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit −51 275.49₸ · invest 141 750.33₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.351032 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2803292 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −51 275.49₸ · invest 141 750.33₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.351032 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2803601 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit −51 445.68₸ · invest 141 920.52₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.294184 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2803612 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −51 445.68₸ · invest 141 920.52₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.294184 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2805765 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit −51 599.88₸ · invest 139 001.61₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.299999 instead of 0.380000
Craft 2805783 · The Gamma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −51 599.88₸ · invest 139 001.61₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.299999 instead of 0.380000

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build