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The Shadow Collection + The Train Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3.18$

Invest 5.55$

Average return 8.73$

ROI +57.2%

Chance of profit 68%

With float: invest at least 13.22 $, profit at most −4.49 $

float premium: at least 8 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

2.90 $

at 0.41

Steam

×2

MAC-10 | Rangeen

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

1.93 $

at 0.97

Steam

×1

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

0.73 $

at 0.73

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.55 $ +3.18 (+57.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1615

0.26 $

at 0.26

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

2.07 $

at 0.41

Steam

×4

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

2.90 $

at 0.73

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.23 $ +0.76 (+14.5%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 68%
Losing outcome 32%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

23.85 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.21 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

5.40 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

7.90 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Tec-9 | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.027999

0.57 $ 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Train Collection

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Train Collection Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Train Collection Variant 4 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Train Collection Variant 5 The Sport & Field Collection instead of The Train Collection Variant 6 only The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.61 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.71 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Train Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2845117 · The Safehouse Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.28$ · invest 5.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)
Craft 2838963 · The Huntsman Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.23$ · invest 6.40$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075247 instead of 0.076060; MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New): float at most 0.004591 instead of 0.005302
Craft 2845289 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 3.19$ · invest 5.43$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075262 instead of 0.076060; MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New): float at most 0.004604 instead of 0.005302
Craft 2843216 · The Prisma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.14$ · invest 5.23$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075296 instead of 0.076060; MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New): float at most 0.004634 instead of 0.005302

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Train Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build