The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +51 161.30₴

Invest 77 370.81₴

Average return 128 532.10₴

ROI +66.1%

Chance of profit 23%

With float: invest at least 181 202.33 ₴, profit at most −52 670.24 ₴

float premium: at least 102 462 ₴

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −62 114.22 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

68 689.72 ₴

at 17 172.43

Steam

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

8 681.09 ₴

at 8 681.09

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 77 370.81 ₴ +51 161.30 (+66.1%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.6% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 734 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

34 344.86 ₴

at 17 172.43

Steam

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

26 043.26 ₴

at 8 681.09

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 60 388.12 ₴ +8 691.69 (+14.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 23%
Losing outcome 62%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

61 973.55 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

39 397.07 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

51 848.76 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 531.29 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 374.88 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

98 631.22 ₴ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 994.50 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

66 821.50 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83 155.07 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

75 776.04 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

46 475.53 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 265.99 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 375.11 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 316 996.48 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

418 053.79 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

121 316.50 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

961 898.27 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

53 779.66 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

25 623.81 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

69 713.30 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17 979.02 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 706.64 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 058.97 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

17 816.20 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

10 755.93 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

18 431.29 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 444.91 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 296.37 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 298.61 ₴ 1.54%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 515.76 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 128.27 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 271.41 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

5 686.60 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +48 842.29 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +50 932.80 ₴ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2847309 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 56 553.85₴ · invest 75 004.58₴
sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly float cannot be reached rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 2847310 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 56 553.85₴ · invest 75 004.58₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 2847971 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 52 590.23₴ · invest 79 141.89₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 2847972 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 52 590.23₴ · invest 79 141.89₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 2847925 · The Horizon Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 51 637.16₴ · invest 78 373.11₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 2847926 · The Glove Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 51 637.16₴ · invest 78 373.11₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 2847714 · The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 51 161.30₴ · invest 77 370.81₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build