The Falchion Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −566.41$

Invest at least 1 363.41$

Average return 797.00$

ROI −41.5%

Chance of profit 13%

With float: invest at least 1 363.41 $, profit at most −566.41 $

float premium: at least 736 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −121 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 1.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −254.50 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

193.13 $

at 193.13

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

400.10 $

at 100.03

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 593.24 $ +203.76 (+34.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 55%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 2%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

556.36 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 042.10 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

520.07 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

192.62 $ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

813.60 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

750.58 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

972.18 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

365.04 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 420.21 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 049.99 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

548.62 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

231.39 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 582.42 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305.87 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 200.60 $ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

817.71 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 241.75 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 800.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 063.03 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

687.04 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

247.26 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

535.09 $ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

163.55 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

161.52 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

238.20 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

246.04 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

396.37 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

239.29 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

410.05 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

299.12 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

273.56 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

407.10 $ 1.54%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

144.96 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

180.83 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

184.02 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

126.51 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +156.52 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +195.82 $ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2847737 · The Revolution Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 203.76$ · invest 593.24$
profit on prices without salesat least −121 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build