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The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +441.52₴

Invest 673.28₴

Average return 1 114.80₴

ROI +65.6%

Chance of profit 51%

With float: invest at least 1 690.10 ₴, profit at most −575.30 ₴

float premium: at least 1 025 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

91.75 ₴

at 91.75

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1718

33.10 ₴

at 33.10

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

548.43 ₴

at 68.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 673.28 ₴ +441.52 (+65.6%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

183.50 ₴

at 91.75

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

33.10 ₴

at 33.10

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

479.87 ₴

at 68.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 696.47 ₴ +384.61 (+55.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1633

75.29 ₴

at 75.29

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

183.50 ₴

at 91.75

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

479.87 ₴

at 68.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 738.66 ₴ +308.70 (+41.8%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 49%
Losing outcome 49%
About break-even 2%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

386.60 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 596.28 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

1 198.28 ₴ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

102.00 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.038499

1 667.18 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

781.97 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

1 009.15 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.050749

731.88 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

475.02 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +204.04 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +332.66 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2885216 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 475.29₴ · invest 628.00₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161818 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074110 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2884718 · The Glove Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 466.51₴ · invest 621.33₴
rare inputs

MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164322 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074981 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2894127 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 461.62₴ · invest 616.96₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2886691 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 459.64₴ · invest 644.61₴
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2889384 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 454.92₴ · invest 619.17₴
rare inputs

AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164540 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075057 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2863235 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 448.52₴ · invest 632.70₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2889026 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 443.82₴ · invest 748.24₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Aloha (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161818 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074110 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2893274 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 442.81₴ · invest 613.05₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166424 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075712 instead of 0.077600

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

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How to build