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The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −150.30₴

Invest at least 477.52₴

Average return 327.22₴

ROI −31.5%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 477.52 ₴, profit at most −150.30 ₴

float premium: at least 275 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Labyrinth

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

52.76 ₴

at 26.38

Steam

×8

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

139.35 ₴

at 17.42

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 192.11 ₴ +135.11 (+70.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

P2000 | Ivory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

22.74 ₴

at 22.74

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Labyrinth

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

79.14 ₴

at 26.38

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1636

11.61 ₴

at 11.61

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

87.10 ₴

at 17.42

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 200.58 ₴ +73.69 (+36.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 076.21 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.077777

112.15 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.048222

202.76 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

357.67 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Osiris

Factory New

float up to 0.038888

130.82 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Tigris

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.077777

126.30 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Koi

Factory New

float up to 0.023333

131.94 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P250 | Supernova

Factory New

float up to 0.031111

141.96 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +75.41 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +115.94 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2890552 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 139.97₴ · invest 180.01₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076021 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2871029 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 139.81₴ · invest 156.45₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 8; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074078 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2893020 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 138.26₴ · invest 201.38₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076222 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2890144 · The Phoenix Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 137.93₴ · invest 205.47₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New)
Craft 2892358 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 137.79₴ · invest 192.80₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075761 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2875420 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 137.22₴ · invest 159.83₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear), Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 8; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074040 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2891652 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 112.84₴ · invest 144.41₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear), Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 8; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2877564 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 109.76₴ · invest 142.18₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New), SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 8; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074819 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2892014 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 109.06₴ · invest 140.51₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Rebel (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 8; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074567 instead of 0.075410
Craft 2874045 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 106.64₴ · invest 158.20₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear), XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New), SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 8; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074513 instead of 0.075410

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

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How to build