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The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3.19$

Invest 3.41$

Average return 6.60$

ROI +93.8%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 8.02 $, profit at most −1.42 $

float premium: at least 5 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

MAC-10 | Ensnared

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

0.31 $

at 0.15

Steam

×6

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

1.63 $

at 0.27

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1645

1.47 $

at 0.74

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3.41 $ +3.19 (+93.8%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

1.36 $

at 0.27

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1662

1.47 $

at 0.74

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

4.57 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.40 $ +6.57 (+88.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

1.90 $

at 0.27

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1641

1.47 $

at 0.74

Steam

×1

MP9 | Dart

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

1.25 $

at 1.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4.63 $ +4.43 (+95.8%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAC-10 | Ensnared

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

0.15 $

at 0.15

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

1.36 $

at 0.27

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1633

1.47 $

at 0.74

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

3.05 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.03 $ +5.48 (+90.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Foresight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

0.14 $

at 0.14

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

0.27 $

at 0.27

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

0.74 $

at 0.74

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

10.67 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11.82 $ +9.52 (+80.5%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 80%

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Space Cat

Factory New

float up to 0.046899

1.44 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

G3SG1 | Dream Glade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3.03 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Night Terror

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

1.94 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Ticket to Hell

Factory New

float up to 0.053199

2.20 $ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

XM1014 | Zombie Offensive

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

1.11 $ 16.00%

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

8.60 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

80.00 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

26.66 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5.49 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.92 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.63 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2871208 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.06$ · invest 4.15$
rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162766 instead of 0.164585
Craft 2866681 · The Boreal Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3.85$ · invest 4.46$
rare inputs

XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear), MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168758 instead of 0.164585
Craft 2887573 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3.61$ · invest 3.35$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear), Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) instead of MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163119 instead of 0.164585
Craft 2880822 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3.58$ · invest 3.40$
rare inputs

Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) instead of MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162797 instead of 0.164585
Craft 2875615 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3.13$ · invest 3.96$
rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163499 instead of 0.164585

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

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How to build