The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +146 846.92₸

Invest 216 561.41₸

Average return 363 408.33₸

ROI +67.8%

Chance of profit 46%

With float: invest at least 503 808.14 ₸, profit at most −140 399.81 ₸

float premium: at least 262 963 ₸

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −69 810.80 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

40 778.58 ₸

at 40 778.58

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

175 782.83 ₸

at 43 945.71

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 216 561.41 ₸ +146 846.92 (+67.8%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −50 901 ₸

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

81 557.16 ₸

at 40 778.58

Steam

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

131 837.12 ₸

at 43 945.71

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 213 394.28 ₸ +94 876.34 (+44.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −101 898 ₸

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

122 335.74 ₸

at 40 778.58

Steam

×2

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

87 891.42 ₸

at 43 945.71

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 210 227.15 ₸ +42 905.77 (+20.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 43%
Losing outcome 39%
About break-even 13%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

about break-even

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

252 280.86 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

472 590.79 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

235 827.32 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

140 263.58 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

354 999.02 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

340 350.12 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

440 834.32 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

165 526.12 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

368 068.47 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

922 869.42 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

248 770.96 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

104 923.14 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

717 625.11 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

133 337.41 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

544 412.02 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

370 790.99 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

563 131.75 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 652 512.70 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

935 581.01 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

242 703.41 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

112 120.58 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

242 636.79 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 159.90 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

73 242.85 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

103 616.33 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

107 021.80 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

134 768.30 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

662 514.48 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

504 018.26 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

92 231.73 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

204 077.03 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

92 226.31 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

189 888.81 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

45 356.80 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Fracture Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +128 905.08 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +143 056.30 ₸ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Revolution Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 13 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2895764 · The Revolution Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 160 394.17₸ · invest 210 587.07₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2895766 · The Huntsman Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 160 394.17₸ · invest 210 587.07₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2895908 · The Revolution Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 159 949.74₸ · invest 226 237.39₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2895910 · The Phoenix Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 159 949.74₸ · invest 226 237.39₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896020 · The Vanguard Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 157 825.69₸ · invest 228 361.43₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006390 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896021 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 157 825.69₸ · invest 228 361.43₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006390 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896006 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 155 978.18₸ · invest 230 208.94₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896007 · The Revolution Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 155 978.18₸ · invest 230 208.94₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896024 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 154 727.85₸ · invest 231 459.28₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896025 · The Revolution Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 154 727.85₸ · invest 231 459.28₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896026 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 147 109.02₸ · invest 239 078.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896027 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 147 109.02₸ · invest 239 078.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2896023 · The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 146 846.92₸ · invest 216 561.41₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build