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The 2021 Train Collection + The Mirage Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −12 242.07₸

Invest at least 250 889.00₸

Average return 238 646.94₸

ROI −4.9%

Chance of profit 80%

With float: invest at least 250 889.00 ₸, profit at most −12 242.07 ₸

float premium: at least 145 020 ₸

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −99 235 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

AUG | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

3 059.16 ₸

at 1 529.58

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Blaze

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

8 109.33 ₸

at 8 109.33

Steam

×7

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

88 867.50 ₸

at 12 695.36

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 100 035.99 ₸ +138 610.94 (+138.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −45 814 ₸

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

R8 Revolver | Blaze

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

1 353.74 ₸

at 1 353.74

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

9 177.48 ₸

at 1 529.58

Steam

×3

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

38 086.07 ₸

at 12 695.36

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 48 617.30 ₸ +45 863.37 (+94.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −57 380 ₸

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

R8 Revolver | Blaze

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

1 353.74 ₸

at 1 353.74

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

7 647.90 ₸

at 1 529.58

Steam

×4

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

50 781.43 ₸

at 12 695.36

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 59 783.07 ₸ +63 530.82 (+106.3%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 80%
Losing outcome 20%

in profit

best

MAG-7 | Bulldozer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

340 760.47 ₸ 80.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.005945

15 645.68 ₸ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.009459

7 888.62 ₸ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

10 180.47 ₸ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.007837

7 383.30 ₸ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.005405

4 792.08 ₸ 4.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Mirage Collection

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Prisma Collection instead of The Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Mirage Collection Variant 5 The Shadow Collection instead of The Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Ascent Collection instead of The Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +120 283.44 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +134 549.12 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Mirage Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2935161 · The Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 144 645.05₸ · invest 106 199.99₸
profit on prices without salesat least −106 200 ₸ rare inputs

Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935203 · The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 140 616.82₸ · invest 100 499.75₸
profit on prices without salesat least −99 718 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003887 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003887 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2910093 · The Ancient Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 140 045.81₸ · invest 101 597.96₸
profit on prices without salesat least −101 598 ₸ rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear), Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003753 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003753 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2931532 · The Glove Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 139 660.73₸ · invest 100 751.71₸
profit on prices without salesat least −97 390 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003923 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003923 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935202 · The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 138 893.04₸ · invest 99 602.50₸
profit on prices without salesat least −98 538 ₸ rare inputs

Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)
Craft 2912358 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 138 409.27₸ · invest 102 220.69₸
profit on prices without salesat least −100 614 ₸ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.004040 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.004040 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2908097 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 138 344.31₸ · invest 102 869.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −101 713 ₸ rare inputs

Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935155 · The Mirage Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 137 587.83₸ · invest 102 992.83₸
profit on prices without salesat least −100 059 ₸ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.004112 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.004112 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2912023 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 135 389.38₸ · invest 103 025.60₸
profit on prices without salesat least −101 661 ₸ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Hive (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003685 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003685 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2914907 · The Bravo Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 132 651.42₸ · invest 111 918.19₸
profit on prices without salesat least −111 143 ₸ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Minimal Wear), Nova | Tempest (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003749 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003749 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935198 · The Mirage Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 126 982.89₸ · invest 111 088.97₸
profit on prices without salesat least −110 068 ₸ rare inputs

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear), P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003832 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003832 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935201 · The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 116 280.97₸ · invest 128 805.26₸
profit on prices without salesat least −128 805 ₸ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New), M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003899 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003899 instead of 0.003860

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Mirage Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build