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The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −25.22$

Invest at least 551.23$

Average return 526.01$

ROI −4.6%

Chance of profit 80%

With float: invest at least 551.23 $, profit at most −25.22 $

float premium: at least 319 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −217 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Blaze

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

17.89 $

at 17.89

Steam

×7

MAC-10 | Amber Fade

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

196.00 $

at 28.00

Steam

×2

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

5.79 $

at 2.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 219.68 $ +306.33 (+139.4%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 80%
Losing outcome 20%

in profit

best

MAG-7 | Bulldozer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

751.55 $ 80.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.025135

26.99 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

9.66 $ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 only The Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The Vertigo Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +266.09 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +297.43 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Mirage Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2935161 · The Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 319.02$ · invest 234.23$
profit on prices without salesat least −234 $ rare inputs

Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935203 · The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 310.13$ · invest 221.65$
profit on prices without salesat least −220 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003887 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003887 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2910093 · The Ancient Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 308.87$ · invest 224.08$
profit on prices without salesat least −224 $ rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear), Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003753 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003753 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2931532 · The Glove Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 308.02$ · invest 222.21$
profit on prices without salesat least −215 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003923 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003923 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2907254 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 305.71$ · invest 220.63$
profit on prices without salesat least −219 $ rare inputs

AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New)
Craft 2912358 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 305.26$ · invest 225.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −222 $ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.004040 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.004040 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2908097 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 305.12$ · invest 226.88$
profit on prices without salesat least −224 $ rare inputs

Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003974 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935155 · The Mirage Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 303.45$ · invest 227.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −221 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.004112 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.004112 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2912023 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 298.60$ · invest 227.23$
profit on prices without salesat least −224 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Hive (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003685 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003685 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2914907 · The Bravo Collection + The Mirage Collection · profit 292.57$ · invest 246.84$
profit on prices without salesat least −245 $ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Minimal Wear), Nova | Tempest (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003749 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003749 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935198 · The Mirage Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 280.06$ · invest 245.01$
profit on prices without salesat least −243 $ rare inputs

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear), P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003832 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003832 instead of 0.003860
Craft 2935201 · The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 256.46$ · invest 284.08$
profit on prices without salesat least −284 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New), M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New): float at most 0.003899 instead of 0.003860; MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New): float at most 0.003899 instead of 0.003860

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 3 outcomes

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How to build