The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −6 927.00₴

Invest at least 42 759.21₴

Average return 35 832.21₴

ROI −16.2%

Chance of profit 23%

With float: invest at least 42 759.21 ₴, profit at most −6 927.00 ₴

float premium: at least 24 402 ₴

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −5 444.02 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

14 388.17 ₴

at 3 597.04

Steam

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

4 042.22 ₴

at 4 042.22

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 430.39 ₴ +17 401.83 (+94.4%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 447 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

10 791.13 ₴

at 3 597.04

Steam

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

8 084.44 ₴

at 4 042.22

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 875.57 ₴ +11 545.23 (+61.2%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 457 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

7 194.08 ₴

at 3 597.04

Steam

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

12 126.66 ₴

at 4 042.22

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 320.74 ₴ +5 688.64 (+29.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 34%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

25 007.61 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

46 836.73 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 376.64 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 903.78 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 189.06 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 737.57 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 698.17 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 407.95 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 477.90 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 462.19 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 659.69 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 400.62 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 237.13 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 170.97 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

41 935.98 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 755.05 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 809.91 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

262 880.75 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

92 721.98 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 058.24 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 114.07 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 051.63 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 351.18 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 260.28 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 271.08 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

10 992.02 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 359.05 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 672.46 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

49 961.35 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 142.57 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 229.35 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 142.03 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 822.93 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 496.04 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Clutch Collection Variant 5 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Fracture Collection instead of The Clutch Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +15 622.97 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17 025.82 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Clutch Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 21 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2942255 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 19 131.67₴ · invest 17 218.84₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.004650 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942257 · The Clutch Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 19 131.67₴ · invest 17 218.84₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.004650 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942061 · The Clutch Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 18 864.69₴ · invest 17 011.83₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942062 · The CS20 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 864.69₴ · invest 17 011.83₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942281 · The Huntsman Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 738.93₴ · invest 17 838.17₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942282 · The Clutch Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 18 738.93₴ · invest 17 838.17₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942291 · The Phoenix Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 665.95₴ · invest 19 389.53₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942292 · The Clutch Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 18 665.95₴ · invest 19 389.53₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942323 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 655.06₴ · invest 19 400.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942324 · The Clutch Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 18 655.06₴ · invest 19 400.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942319 · The Vanguard Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 614.83₴ · invest 19 440.65₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008639 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942320 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 18 614.83₴ · invest 19 440.65₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008639 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942269 · The Fracture Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 603.84₴ · invest 16 969.14₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942270 · The Clutch Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 18 603.84₴ · invest 16 969.14₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942305 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 272.34₴ · invest 19 783.14₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942306 · The Clutch Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 18 272.34₴ · invest 19 783.14₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942321 · The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 17 401.82₴ · invest 18 430.39₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2942325 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 17 393.10₴ · invest 20 662.38₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007121 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942326 · The Clutch Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 17 393.10₴ · invest 20 662.38₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007121 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942215 · The Clutch Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 17 298.43₴ · invest 20 591.74₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.005081 instead of 0.008756
Craft 2942216 · The Chroma Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 17 298.43₴ · invest 20 591.74₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.005081 instead of 0.008756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build