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The 2021 Train Collection + The Shadow Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −33.43$

Invest at least 91.53$

Average return 58.10$

ROI −36.5%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 91.53 $, profit at most −33.43 $

float premium: at least 52 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

9.96 $

at 9.96

Steam

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0781

17.94 $

at 2.56

Steam

×2

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

10.97 $

at 5.49

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 38.88 $ +19.22 (+49.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

19.93 $

at 9.96

Steam

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

17.94 $

at 2.56

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

5.49 $

at 5.49

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 43.36 $ +16.21 (+37.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −26 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

8.05 $

at 8.05

Steam

×4

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

39.85 $

at 9.96

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

2.17 $

at 2.17

Steam

×4

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

10.25 $

at 2.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 60.33 $ +3.65 (+6.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −17 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

8.05 $

at 8.05

Steam

×3

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

29.89 $

at 9.96

Steam

×6

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

15.38 $

at 2.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 53.32 $ +9.19 (+17.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 30%
About break-even 30%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

123.62 $ 30.00%

Steam

about break-even

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

float up to 0.052941

46.63 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

float up to 0.037646

25.12 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Meltdown

Factory New

float up to 0.023529

78.81 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MAC-10 | Propaganda

Factory New

float up to 0.036470

77.32 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Whiteout

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103529

89.94 $ 3.33%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 only The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +9.84 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +16.55 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2984324 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 20.43$ · invest 35.80$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078939 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007821 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2967402 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 20.28$ · invest 33.01$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075965 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.005219 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2987811 · The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 20.27$ · invest 33.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077582 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.006634 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2987014 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 20.03$ · invest 33.53$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078795 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007696 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2967403 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 19.68$ · invest 33.01$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078939 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007821 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2987707 · The Shadow Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 19.43$ · invest 34.22$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079182 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.008034 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2959257 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 18.96$ · invest 37.35$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075739 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.005022 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2987758 · The Shadow Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 18.77$ · invest 36.38$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078488 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007427 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2987793 · The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 18.60$ · invest 38.68$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078488 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007427 instead of 0.007156
Craft 2960330 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 18.49$ · invest 34.87$
sells slowly rare inputs

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078708 instead of 0.078179; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007619 instead of 0.007156

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build