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The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −11.28$

Invest at least 35.01$

Average return 23.72$

ROI −32.2%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest at least 35.01 $, profit at most −11.28 $

float premium: at least 20 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

1.99 $

at 1.99

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1718

0.77 $

at 0.77

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

11.21 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13.97 $ +9.75 (+69.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −5 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

9.96 $

at 1.99

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

3.31 $

at 3.31

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

5.61 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18.88 $ +1.53 (+8.1%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

3.98 $

at 1.99

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

0.77 $

at 0.77

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

9.81 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.57 $ +8.50 (+58.3%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 53%
Losing outcome 47%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

7.99 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74.75 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

26.66 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.78 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.038499

34.50 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

17.40 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

22.44 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.050749

17.97 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

9.83 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4.71 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +7.45 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 12 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2954067 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.47$ · invest 14.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169802 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076887 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2979994 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.35$ · invest 13.10$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161818 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074110 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2979490 · The Glove Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.34$ · invest 12.86$
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2988782 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 10.18$ · invest 12.73$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2983401 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.17$ · invest 12.87$
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Contaminant (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163150 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074574 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2959646 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.07$ · invest 15.35$
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163150 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074574 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2981460 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.04$ · invest 13.39$
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2955720 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.94$ · invest 16.60$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169802 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076887 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2984097 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.93$ · invest 12.95$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Lumen (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164753 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075131 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2988798 · The Vanguard Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 9.91$ · invest 13.55$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162887 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074482 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2958391 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.84$ · invest 13.13$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2987923 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.78$ · invest 12.68$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166424 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075712 instead of 0.077600

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

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How to build