The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −43 347.62₴

Invest at least 107 201.01₴

Average return 63 853.39₴

ROI −40.4%

Chance of profit 7%

With float: invest at least 107 201.01 ₴, profit at most −43 347.62 ₴

float premium: at least 60 669 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −30 397.01 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

35 848.46 ₴

at 8 962.12

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

10 379.35 ₴

at 10 379.35

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 46 227.81 ₴ +17 625.58 (+38.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.9% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 093 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

26 886.35 ₴

at 8 962.12

Steam

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

20 758.70 ₴

at 10 379.35

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 47 645.05 ₴ +11 461.03 (+24.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 11.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 844 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

17 924.23 ₴

at 8 962.12

Steam

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

31 138.06 ₴

at 10 379.35

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 49 062.29 ₴ +5 296.47 (+10.8%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 64%
Losing outcome 21%
About break-even 9%
Above the Steam cap 7%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 867.74 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

92 017.03 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 385.95 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

68 662.18 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 867.51 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 153.78 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 938.19 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

81 590.86 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

66 698.72 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 646.40 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 843.60 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200 818.20 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

64 134.11 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

58 562.65 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 624.89 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

78 365.55 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

39 034.54 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 168.40 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

46 932.79 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 529.09 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 877.72 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

84 472.71 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

81 229.90 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 866.43 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

57 988.96 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

54 056.20 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

31 597.05 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 478.63 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 655.69 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 358.53 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 871.30 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

64 519.99 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +17 181.02 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17 572.27 ₴ historical median

9% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2990007 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 738.70₴ · invest 44 557.98₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990009 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 17 738.70₴ · invest 44 557.98₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989515 · The Breakout Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 625.58₴ · invest 46 227.81₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2989437 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 17 084.79₴ · invest 42 811.83₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989439 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 084.79₴ · invest 42 811.83₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989357 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 16 926.72₴ · invest 42 969.90₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989359 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 16 926.72₴ · invest 42 969.90₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989667 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 16 581.40₴ · invest 43 128.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989669 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 16 581.40₴ · invest 43 128.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990059 · The Spectrum Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 16 341.19₴ · invest 42 021.59₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990061 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 16 341.19₴ · invest 42 021.59₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build