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The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +11.75$

Invest 14.94$

Average return 26.69$

ROI +78.7%

Chance of profit 53%

With float: invest at least 37.50 $, profit at most −10.81 $

float premium: at least 23 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

1.99 $

at 1.99

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1718

0.76 $

at 0.76

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

12.18 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.94 $ +11.75 (+78.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

3.99 $

at 1.99

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

0.76 $

at 0.76

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

10.66 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.41 $ +10.32 (+67.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1633

1.56 $

at 1.56

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

3.99 $

at 1.99

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

10.66 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.21 $ +8.56 (+52.8%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 49%
Losing outcome 47%
About break-even 4%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

9.32 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

88.01 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

27.09 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.76 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.038499

36.89 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

17.40 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

22.45 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.050749

17.92 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

9.11 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +6.13 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +9.20 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3030808 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.18$ · invest 13.84$
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Contaminant (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163150 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074574 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3020610 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.13$ · invest 13.43$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3036179 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 12.10$ · invest 13.73$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3028898 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.02$ · invest 14.35$
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3031511 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.96$ · invest 13.85$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Lumen (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164753 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075131 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3005652 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.87$ · invest 14.09$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3036195 · The Vanguard Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 11.85$ · invest 14.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162887 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074482 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3035318 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.77$ · invest 13.65$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166424 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075712 instead of 0.077600
Craft 3036228 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 11.63$ · invest 14.98$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165604 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075427 instead of 0.077600

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

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How to build