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The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 459.57₴

Invest 1 028.39₴

Average return 2 487.96₴

ROI +141.9%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 2 684.48 ₴, profit at most −196.52 ₴

float premium: at least 1 656 ₴

To build: medium

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

42.94 ₴

at 42.94

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

985.45 ₴

at 109.49

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 028.39 ₴ +1 459.57 (+141.9%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

472.94 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

714.78 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 190.70 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.006382

264.90 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

834.06 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.005531

403.27 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.005319

220.68 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.145425

658.72 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +948.55 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 277.13 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 32 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3001332 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 541.22₴ · invest 1 147.84₴
sells slowly цена ненадёжна rare inputs

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007547 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3036103 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 519.62₴ · invest 1 054.18₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004494 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3036159 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 508.17₴ · invest 1 148.41₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006278 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3004857 · The Ancient Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 503.24₴ · invest 1 167.61₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005343 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2998757 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 480.04₴ · invest 1 015.13₴
sells slowly pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3035306 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 477.31₴ · invest 1 070.98₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004326 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2999559 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 469.47₴ · invest 1 086.65₴
sells slowly

P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3033169 · The Prisma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 462.00₴ · invest 1 036.54₴
sells slowly

FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007668 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3015567 · The Chroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 458.89₴ · invest 1 026.77₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3007740 · The Ascent Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 458.24₴ · invest 1 025.06₴
sells slowly

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3030796 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 456.82₴ · invest 1 079.22₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3036132 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 1 455.80₴ · invest 1 056.03₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.003780 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3024112 · The Gallery Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 447.72₴ · invest 1 023.86₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007892 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3008341 · The Bank Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 446.09₴ · invest 1 049.81₴
sells slowly

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006040 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3026128 · The Genesis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 444.71₴ · invest 1 022.50₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Caged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3019065 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 443.46₴ · invest 1 020.84₴
sells slowly

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3026828 · The Glove Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 443.33₴ · invest 1 180.06₴
sells slowly

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3029947 · The Lake Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 443.20₴ · invest 1 006.29₴
sells slowly

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3036010 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 440.38₴ · invest 1 078.64₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3029145 · The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 438.05₴ · invest 1 014.70₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3028884 · The Huntsman Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 434.89₴ · invest 1 056.03₴
sells slowly

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005833 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3036121 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 434.42₴ · invest 1 083.54₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3036097 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Train Collection · profit 1 433.27₴ · invest 1 015.32₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3031499 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 432.91₴ · invest 1 108.49₴
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 3006280 · The Arabesque Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 432.88₴ · invest 1 077.48₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3027356 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 430.83₴ · invest 1 086.15₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3020595 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 409.27₴ · invest 1 045.44₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3001722 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 408.33₴ · invest 1 119.64₴
sells slowly

R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3005630 · The Anubis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 407.24₴ · invest 1 164.85₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3036152 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 1 404.98₴ · invest 1 115.91₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3006937 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 394.78₴ · invest 1 224.69₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005703 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3003032 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 392.46₴ · invest 1 261.50₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir Nova | Interlock (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006999 instead of 0.007889

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build