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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +11.32$

Invest 15.71$

Average return 27.03$

ROI +72.0%

Chance of profit 50%

With float: invest at least 39.17 $, profit at most −12.14 $

float premium: at least 23 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MP9 | Dart

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

1.24 $

at 1.24

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

12.18 $

at 1.52

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

2.28 $

at 2.28

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.71 $ +11.32 (+72.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1657

0.76 $

at 0.76

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

7.62 $

at 1.52

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

2.28 $

at 2.28

Steam

×3

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

8.67 $

at 2.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19.33 $ +4.18 (+21.6%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1647

1.52 $

at 0.76

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

4.57 $

at 1.52

Steam

×5

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

14.46 $

at 2.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 20.54 $ +1.79 (+8.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

0.76 $

at 0.76

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

9.14 $

at 1.52

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

2.28 $

at 2.28

Steam

×2

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

5.78 $

at 2.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.97 $ +6.72 (+37.4%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

9.32 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

88.01 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

27.09 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5.30 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.046599

28.14 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

9.75 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5.69 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +8.75 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3003057 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.93$ · invest 18.05$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) instead of PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear)
Craft 3001732 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.77$ · invest 15.42$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) instead of PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074941 instead of 0.074154; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074941 instead of 0.074154
Craft 3032053 · The Overpass Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11.21$ · invest 17.76$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) instead of PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074154; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074154
Craft 3036176 · The Vanguard Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 10.96$ · invest 15.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir P90 | Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested) instead of PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074154; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074154

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build