The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −436 450.39₸

Invest at least 1 801 816.95₸

Average return 1 365 366.55₸

ROI −24.2%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest at least 1 801 816.95 ₸, profit at most −436 450.39 ₸

float premium: at least 1 009 063 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 4.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −604 635.65 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

691 180.54 ₸

at 172 795.13

Steam

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

77 395.81 ₸

at 77 395.81

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 768 576.35 ₸ +596 790.20 (+77.7%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 23%
Losing outcome 65%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

344 999.44 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

625 896.84 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

396 656.54 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

521 724.65 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

295 347.42 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 464 997.50 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

728 308.02 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

974 013.20 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

542 751.77 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

672 544.47 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

814 127.60 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

761 516.31 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

467 058.95 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 913 557.20 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

778 581.90 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 252 188.42 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 618 344.97 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 289 035.39 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 679 036.58 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

546 252.70 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

257 852.25 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700 588.54 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

160 538.21 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

97 036.66 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

138 425.30 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

180 070.89 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

109 250.54 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

185 474.04 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

136 563.18 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

123 760.49 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

183 079.00 ₸ 1.54%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

65 564.42 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

81 999.47 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83 235.26 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

57 880.28 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Breakout Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Chroma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +573 656.56 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +594 653.81 ₸ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3036925 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 642 074.84₸ · invest 795 224.47₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3036926 · The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 642 074.84₸ · invest 795 224.47₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3037145 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 641 917.32₸ · invest 752 108.36₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3037146 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 641 917.32₸ · invest 752 108.36₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3037781 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 598 926.48₸ · invest 796 822.15₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3037782 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 598 926.48₸ · invest 796 822.15₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3037516 · The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 596 790.18₸ · invest 768 576.35₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build