The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +14 790.04₴

Invest 21 221.48₴

Average return 36 011.52₴

ROI +69.7%

Chance of profit 50%

With float: invest at least 49 410.10 ₴, profit at most −13 398.59 ₴

float premium: at least 25 213 ₴

To build: medium

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −7 979.97 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

3 798.54 ₴

at 3 798.54

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

17 422.94 ₴

at 4 355.73

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 221.48 ₴ +14 790.04 (+69.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 704 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0138

7 597.09 ₴

at 3 798.54

Steam

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0080

13 067.20 ₴

at 4 355.73

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 20 664.29 ₴ +9 882.71 (+47.8%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 39%
About break-even 10%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 739.14 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 020.22 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 128.60 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 933.77 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 891.09 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 860.13 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 809.12 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 471.59 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 620.81 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 820.51 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 759.75 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 400.66 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 555.02 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 089.85 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 100.26 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 904.19 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 028.55 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

263 910.63 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

87 985.25 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 155.87 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 142.29 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 149.23 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 381.01 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 356.69 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 193.62 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

10 742.67 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 413.26 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 839.20 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

50 088.20 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.98 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 307.81 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.44 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 072.90 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 409.33 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Fracture Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +12 898.18 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +14 385.70 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Revolution Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 13 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3037029 · The Revolution Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 16 184.59₴ · invest 20 056.65₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3037030 · The CS20 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 16 184.59₴ · invest 20 056.65₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3037999 · The Revolution Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 16 008.71₴ · invest 22 161.66₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038001 · The Phoenix Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 16 008.71₴ · invest 22 161.66₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3037847 · The Revolution Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 15 884.50₴ · invest 20 884.99₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3037849 · The Huntsman Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 884.50₴ · invest 20 884.99₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038131 · The Vanguard Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 516.00₴ · invest 22 654.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006390 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038132 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 15 516.00₴ · invest 22 654.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006390 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038117 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 331.46₴ · invest 22 838.91₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038118 · The Revolution Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 15 331.46₴ · invest 22 838.91₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038137 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 214.43₴ · invest 22 955.93₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038138 · The Revolution Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 15 214.43₴ · invest 22 955.93₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 3038135 · The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 14 790.04₴ · invest 21 221.48₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build