The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −168.16$

Invest 359.82$

Average return 191.67$

ROI −46.7%

Chance of profit 12%

With float: invest at least 794.06 $, profit at most −602.39 $

float premium: at least 417 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈3% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0845

168.41 $

at 56.14

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0127

117.64 $

at 117.64

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1918

73.78 $

at 73.78

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 359.82 $ −168.16 (−46.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

112.27 $

at 56.14

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

117.64 $

at 117.64

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1750

147.55 $

at 73.78

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 377.46 $ −193.80 (−51.3%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

117.64 $

at 117.64

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1730

221.33 $

at 73.78

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0780

140.03 $

at 140.03

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 478.99 $ −311.35 (−65.0%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 10.8% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

56.14 $

at 56.14

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

117.64 $

at 117.64

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

221.33 $

at 73.78

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 395.10 $ −219.45 (−55.5%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 12%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 14%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

287.02 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

693.18 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

287.55 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

195.26 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

436.64 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

127.13 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

374.40 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

202.90 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

151.53 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

90.36 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

139.17 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

310.38 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

336.75 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

297.86 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

132.66 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

224.50 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

83.90 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

167.81 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

162.76 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

181.16 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

142.45 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

185.04 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

161.29 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 168.41 → 380.61 $

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 117.64 → 254.09 $

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 73.78 → 159.36 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −187.38 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −170.74 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3043817 · The Wildfire Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit −163.98$ · invest 361.20$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3043823 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −163.98$ · invest 361.20$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3043112 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit −165.93$ · invest 389.31$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076756 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005912 instead of 0.012736
Craft 3043127 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −165.93$ · invest 389.31$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076756 instead of 0.084556; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005912 instead of 0.012736
Craft 3043113 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit −166.79$ · invest 389.31$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3043128 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −166.79$ · invest 389.31$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3041533 · The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −168.16$ · invest 359.82$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build