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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +9.43$

Invest 11.41$

Average return 20.83$

ROI +82.6%

Chance of profit 35%

With float: invest at least 27.15 $, profit at most −6.31 $

float premium: at least 16 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +12.28 $ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1.11 $

at 0.56

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

0.93 $

at 0.93

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

1.75 $

at 0.88

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

7.61 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11.41 $ +9.43 (+82.6%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

2.22 $

at 0.56

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1719

0.88 $

at 0.88

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

7.61 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10.71 $ +7.73 (+72.1%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0769

2.78 $

at 0.56

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1700

0.88 $

at 0.88

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0769

6.09 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.74 $ +6.30 (+64.6%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0761

3.33 $

at 0.56

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1677

0.88 $

at 0.88

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0761

4.57 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.78 $ +4.87 (+55.5%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 65%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

8.39 $ 17.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90.03 $ 17.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

28.99 $ 17.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

1.49 $ 17.50%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

6.02 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

1.81 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.045499

9.42 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

5.00 $ 6.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.184624

1.09 $ 6.00%

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1.11 → 2.45 $

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 0.93 → 2.01 $

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1.75 → 3.87 $

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 5 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.47 7.61 → 18.81 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.087499900

outcomes come out up to 0.040124, 0.069999, 0.059499, 0.087499, 0.052499, 0.087499, 0.045499, 0.043749, 0.184624

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5.08 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +7.44 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3056657 · The Bank Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.49$ · invest 12.63$
rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested), CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 1 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162035 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 7 pcs instead of 5; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074186 instead of 0.074251
Craft 3077342 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.06$ · invest 11.70$
rare inputs

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear), Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162538 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074361 instead of 0.074251
Craft 3077341 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.68$ · invest 11.46$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162072 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074199 instead of 0.074251
Craft 3064099 · The Chroma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.34$ · invest 11.46$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162072 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074199 instead of 0.074251
Craft 3076717 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.29$ · invest 10.50$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161665 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 5; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074057 instead of 0.074251
Craft 3083878 · The Safehouse Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.87$ · invest 11.08$
rare inputs

FAMAS | Teardown (Minimal Wear), Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163123 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074564 instead of 0.074251
Craft 3056038 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.38$ · invest 10.63$
rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear), P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 1 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162181 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074237 instead of 0.074251
Craft 3063330 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.38$ · invest 9.63$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred), M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165407 instead of 0.162223; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075359 instead of 0.074251

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

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How to build