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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +0.95$

Invest 9.05$

Average return 10.00$

ROI +10.5%

Chance of profit 23%

With float: invest at least 20.93 $, profit at most −10.93 $

float premium: at least 11 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1691

2.24 $

at 0.45

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

3.35 $

at 0.84

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

3.46 $

at 3.46

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.05 $ +0.95 (+10.5%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 23%
Losing outcome 77%

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6.65 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.116666

4.31 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.060666

24.75 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.058333

7.14 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.199499

1.86 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.064333

60.00 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.058333

9.00 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 3 The Snakebite Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Gamma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −0.39 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +0.88 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3070255 · The Falchion Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 0.95$ · invest 7.32$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161935 instead of 0.169108; StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074151 instead of 0.076646
Craft 3070204 · The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 0.91$ · invest 7.37$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163461 instead of 0.169108; StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074682 instead of 0.076646

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build