The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −213 744.23₸

Invest at least 633 546.69₸

Average return 419 802.51₸

ROI −33.7%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 633 546.69 ₸, profit at most −213 744.23 ₸

float premium: at least 347 907 ₸

To build: medium

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 3.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −155 041.16 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

101 538.64 ₸

at 101 538.64

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

175 147.25 ₸

at 43 786.81

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 276 685.89 ₸ +143 116.62 (+51.7%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −19 368 ₸

1% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

203 077.27 ₸

at 101 538.64

Steam

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

131 360.44 ₸

at 43 786.81

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 334 437.72 ₸ +89 455.74 (+26.8%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 37%
Above the Steam cap 3%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

119 881.86 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

471 410.74 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

452 373.06 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

129 649.25 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

349 751.37 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 416.97 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

439 146.53 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

165 112.70 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

367 149.42 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

920 565.06 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

242 016.86 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

95 230.78 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

717 389.35 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

131 100.64 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

422 084.76 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

369 930.88 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

561 725.63 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 645 889.47 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

904 732.25 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

242 140.53 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

111 691.35 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

242 074.00 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

69 039.76 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

73 744.14 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

844 241.84 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

542 839.37 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

454 600.79 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

581 288.86 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

589 984.93 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

316 733.17 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

404 858.62 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

622 392.48 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

384 511.19 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

425 224.18 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

771 669.30 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +122 139.36 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +139 471.64 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 29 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3087230 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 143 369.26₸ · invest 238 200.24₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087231 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 143 369.26₸ · invest 238 200.24₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3085952 · The Revolution Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 143 116.60₸ · invest 276 685.89₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3087226 · The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 143 097.47₸ · invest 217 672.88₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011477 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087227 · The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 143 097.47₸ · invest 217 672.88₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011477 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087152 · The Revolution Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 142 132.86₸ · invest 216 849.89₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087153 · The Prisma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 142 132.86₸ · invest 216 849.89₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087012 · The Revolution Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 141 149.28₸ · invest 265 623.94₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012385 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087014 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 141 149.28₸ · invest 265 623.94₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012385 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086816 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 140 061.63₸ · invest 243 215.56₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086817 · The Gamma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 140 061.63₸ · invest 243 215.56₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086984 · The Revolution Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 139 452.51₸ · invest 207 642.91₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086985 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 139 452.51₸ · invest 207 642.91₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086248 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 137 920.09₸ · invest 237 573.69₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086249 · The Chroma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 137 920.09₸ · invest 237 573.69₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3085874 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 136 620.58₸ · invest 244 948.93₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.005233 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3085875 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 136 620.58₸ · invest 244 948.93₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.005233 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3085792 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 135 074.08₸ · invest 246 495.42₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012251 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3085793 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 135 074.08₸ · invest 246 495.42₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012251 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086686 · The Revolution Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 134 952.80₸ · invest 216 014.95₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086687 · The Fever Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 134 952.80₸ · invest 216 014.95₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087212 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 133 611.48₸ · invest 224 499.51₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087213 · The Revolution Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 133 611.48₸ · invest 224 499.51₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086596 · The Revolution Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 131 921.86₸ · invest 228 969.17₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086597 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 131 921.86₸ · invest 228 969.17₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086786 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 131 070.97₸ · invest 252 206.22₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3086787 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 131 070.97₸ · invest 252 206.22₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087220 · The Spectrum Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 129 671.21₸ · invest 237 714.46₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 3087221 · The Revolution Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 129 671.21₸ · invest 237 714.46₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build