The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −6 737.82₴

Invest at least 42 728.02₴

Average return 35 990.21₴

ROI −15.8%

Chance of profit 23%

With float: invest at least 42 728.02 ₴, profit at most −6 737.82 ₴

float premium: at least 23 449 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −5 291.64 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

4 242.33 ₴

at 4 242.33

Steam

×4

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

14 192.22 ₴

at 3 548.05

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 434.55 ₴ +17 555.66 (+95.2%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 142 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

8 484.66 ₴

at 4 242.33

Steam

×3

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

10 644.16 ₴

at 3 548.05

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 128.82 ₴ +11 380.50 (+59.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 541 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

12 726.98 ₴

at 4 242.33

Steam

×2

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

7 096.11 ₴

at 3 548.05

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 823.09 ₴ +5 205.33 (+26.3%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 56%
Losing outcome 37%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 959.33 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 027.62 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 128.43 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 933.72 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 890.96 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 860.01 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 808.96 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 471.53 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 626.58 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 834.95 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 143.44 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 500.16 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 566.28 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 078.51 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 106.89 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 904.06 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 037.37 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

263 952.16 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90 255.48 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 155.78 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 142.25 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 149.14 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 887.36 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 356.67 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 998.11 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

9 369.41 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 413.21 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 838.96 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

50 088.02 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.95 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 307.74 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.41 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 072.83 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

3 680.62 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Clutch Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Clutch Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +15 684.45 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17 156.54 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Clutch Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3085982 · The Clutch Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 19 443.22₴ · invest 16 787.06₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3085983 · The CS20 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 19 443.22₴ · invest 16 787.06₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3086340 · The Vanguard Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 19 179.36₴ · invest 18 885.76₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008639 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3086341 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 19 179.36₴ · invest 18 885.76₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008639 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3086326 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 504.89₴ · invest 19 560.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3086327 · The Clutch Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 18 504.89₴ · invest 19 560.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3086344 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 18 352.15₴ · invest 19 712.97₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3086345 · The Clutch Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 18 352.15₴ · invest 19 712.97₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3086343 · The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 17 555.66₴ · invest 18 434.55₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build