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The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +0.80$

Invest 5.59$

Average return 6.39$

ROI +14.4%

Chance of profit 66%

With float: invest at least 14.42 $, profit at most −8.02 $

float premium: at least 9 $

To build: medium

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0802

0.59 $

at 0.59

Steam

×9

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0064

4.99 $

at 0.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.59 $ +0.80 (+14.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0802

0.59 $

at 0.59

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

2.84 $

at 0.95

Steam

×6

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

3.33 $

at 0.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.76 $ +0.45 (+6.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0802

0.59 $

at 0.59

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

1.89 $

at 0.95

Steam

×7

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

3.88 $

at 0.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.37 $ +0.57 (+8.9%)

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0802

0.59 $

at 0.59

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

0.95 $

at 0.95

Steam

×8

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

4.44 $

at 0.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.98 $ +0.69 (+11.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

≈1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0802

0.59 $

at 0.59

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0091

3.78 $

at 0.95

Steam

×5

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

2.77 $

at 0.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.15 $ +0.34 (+4.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 66%
Losing outcome 2%
About break-even 32%

in profit

AUG | Eye of Zapems

Factory New

float up to 0.016666

7.43 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels

Factory New

float up to 0.016078

7.27 $ 30.00%

Steam

about break-even

XM1014 | Monster Melt

Factory New

float up to 0.014705

6.41 $ 30.00%

Steam

about break-even

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

6.16 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.019607

16.76 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.010196

8.38 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.009803

5.49 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

14.12 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Overpass 2024 Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −0.27 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +0.38 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Overpass 2024 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build