The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −425 521.44₸

Invest at least 1 755 507.41₸

Average return 1 329 985.97₸

ROI −24.2%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest at least 1 755 507.41 ₸, profit at most −425 521.44 ₸

float premium: at least 980 000 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −595 931.31 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

670 159.44 ₸

at 167 539.86

Steam

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

78 972.39 ₸

at 78 972.39

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 749 131.83 ₸ +580 854.14 (+77.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 27%
Losing outcome 62%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

608 013.27 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 212.98 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

521 766.77 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

296 275.91 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 465 196.58 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

728 307.80 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 065 760.45 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

545 206.14 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

672 544.27 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

852 641.38 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

761 516.08 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

467 058.81 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 913 711.76 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 253 258.59 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 575 597.98 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 266 070.65 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 679 818.20 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

546 252.54 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

257 852.17 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700 588.33 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

158 540.51 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

112 462.69 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

110 829.45 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

175 660.89 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

109 250.51 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

185 473.99 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

136 563.13 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

123 760.45 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

149 268.81 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

65 569.70 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

81 999.44 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83 235.23 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

57 880.26 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Chroma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +558 118.73 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +578 872.39 ₸ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 13 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3135987 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 619 763.13₸ · invest 760 636.07₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3135988 · The Glove Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 619 763.13₸ · invest 760 636.07₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3135379 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 617 748.57₸ · invest 737 111.70₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3135380 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 617 748.57₸ · invest 737 111.70₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3135913 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 613 743.55₸ · invest 747 218.36₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3135914 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 613 743.55₸ · invest 747 218.36₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3135241 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 607 494.59₸ · invest 747 365.68₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006609 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3135242 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 607 494.59₸ · invest 747 365.68₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006609 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3135311 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 606 667.89₸ · invest 748 192.38₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3135312 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 606 667.89₸ · invest 748 192.38₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3135768 · The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 580 854.16₸ · invest 749 131.83₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3136027 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 579 630.15₸ · invest 781 085.91₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3136028 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 579 630.15₸ · invest 781 085.91₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build