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The 2021 Mirage Collection

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

Average profit +3.31$

Invest 7.56$

Average return 10.87$

ROI +43.8%

Chance of profit 25%

With float: invest at least 18.62 $, profit at most −7.76 $

float premium: at least 10 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×8

P90 | Verdant Growth

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

5.06 $

at 0.63

Steam

×2

Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

2.49 $

at 1.25

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 7.56 $ +3.31 (+43.8%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 25%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 25%

at a loss

worst

M249 | Humidor

Factory New

float up to 0.063636

4.07 $ 25.00%

Steam

about break-even

MP9 | Music Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8.38 $ 25.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

float up to 0.062363

4.10 $ 25.00%

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Purple DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33.44 $ 25.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Industrial → Mil-Spec

Variant 2 Consumer → Industrial

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.26 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.46 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build