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The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −536.11₴

Invest at least 1 769.28₴

Average return 1 233.17₴

ROI −30.3%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest at least 1 769.28 ₴, profit at most −536.11 ₴

float premium: at least 1 080 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

105.72 ₴

at 105.72

Steam

×1

MP9 | Dart

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

54.44 ₴

at 54.44

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

549.55 ₴

at 68.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 709.71 ₴ +523.46 (+73.8%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

211.45 ₴

at 105.72

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

149.30 ₴

at 149.30

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

480.85 ₴

at 68.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 841.60 ₴ +288.10 (+34.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −83 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

317.17 ₴

at 105.72

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

298.60 ₴

at 149.30

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

343.47 ₴

at 68.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 959.24 ₴ +66.99 (+7.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

317.17 ₴

at 105.72

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

149.30 ₴

at 149.30

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

412.16 ₴

at 68.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 878.63 ₴ +199.33 (+22.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

AUG | Amber Fade

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

94.94 ₴

at 94.94

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

105.72 ₴

at 105.72

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

549.55 ₴

at 68.69

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 750.21 ₴ +431.23 (+57.5%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 49%
Losing outcome 47%
About break-even 4%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

419.83 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

3 932.79 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

1 319.97 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

238.01 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.030799

1 455.17 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

784.60 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

940.92 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.040599

805.16 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.027999

427.49 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +269.66 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +407.44 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3195546 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 571.36₴ · invest 731.47₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Humidor (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074154 instead of 0.074941; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074154 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3197052 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 537.87₴ · invest 807.79₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074941; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3197053 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 536.01₴ · invest 835.27₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074154 instead of 0.074941; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074154 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3195944 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 533.16₴ · invest 674.39₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075700 instead of 0.074941; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075700 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3230555 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 523.31₴ · invest 707.02₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074154 instead of 0.074941; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074154 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3230556 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 516.82₴ · invest 687.89₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074941; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3226329 · The Overpass Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 516.18₴ · invest 799.59₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074941; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074138 instead of 0.074941

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build