The Operation Hydra Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −764 536.51₸

Invest at least 1 518 088.66₸

Average return 753 552.15₸

ROI −50.4%

Chance of profit 10%

With float: invest at least 1 518 088.66 ₸, profit at most −764 536.51 ₸

float premium: at least 844 045 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +199 008.76 ₸ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −592 880.97 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

254 770.20 ₸

at 254 770.20

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.00 ₸ +57 672.80 ₸ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0037

Steam

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

409 211.43 ₸

at 102 302.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 120 699.81 ₸ +18 396.96 ₸ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0138

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 663 981.63 ₸ +89 570.52 (+13.5%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

1 019 080.81 ₸

at 254 770.20

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.00 ₸ +57 672.80 ₸ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0056

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

102 302.86 ₸

at 102 302.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 120 699.81 ₸ +18 396.96 ₸ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0207

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 121 383.66 ₸ +199 008.76 (+17.8%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.6% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

764 310.61 ₸

at 254 770.20

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.00 ₸ +57 672.80 ₸ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0048

Steam

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

204 605.71 ₸

at 102 302.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 120 699.81 ₸ +18 396.96 ₸ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0177

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 968 916.32 ₸ +162 529.33 (+16.8%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.6% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

509 540.40 ₸

at 254 770.20

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.00 ₸ +57 672.80 ₸ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0042

Steam

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

306 908.57 ₸

at 102 302.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 120 699.81 ₸ +18 396.96 ₸ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0155

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 816 448.98 ₸ +126 049.95 (+15.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 18%
Losing outcome 73%
Above the Steam cap 9%

Order

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

839 870.27 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

540 109.50 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

454 929.71 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

445 546.48 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

587 017.99 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

315 140.39 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

401 026.80 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 986 356.22 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

596 109.87 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

382 577.58 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

423 085.80 ₸ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

640 249.82 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

337 167.87 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

301 781.19 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

383 306.72 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

519 184.75 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

294 809.79 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 452 997.32 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

343 750.78 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

548 831.81 ₸ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

234 047.46 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

848 422.04 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

371 525.73 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

220 447.23 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 934 631.73 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 187 673.79 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 600 730.05 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 259 805.44 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 631 916.88 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

229 949.29 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

137 630.32 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

188 614.52 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

160 012.91 ₸ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Operation Hydra Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +76 371.49 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +87 589.46 ₸ historical median

1% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Operation Hydra Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3273468 · The Breakout Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 89 570.52₸ · invest 663 981.63₸
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Operation Hydra Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build