The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −2 899.24₴

Invest 30 453.75₴

Average return 27 554.52₴

ROI −9.5%

Chance of profit 31%

With float: invest at least 67 907.83 ₴, profit at most −40 353.31 ₴

float premium: at least 36 969 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +8 810.78 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −23 250.82 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

12 100.57 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

18 353.18 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 36 · buy 0.0000–0.0101

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 30 453.75 ₴ −2 899.24 (−9.5%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.3% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

4 033.52 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0189

Steam

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

36 706.36 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 36 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 40 739.89 ₴ +8 810.78 (+21.6%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 12.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 794 ₴

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

8 067.05 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0172

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

27 529.77 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 36 · buy 0.0000–0.0110

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 35 596.82 ₴ +2 955.77 (+8.3%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 19.4% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

16 134.10 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0145

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

9 176.59 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 36 · buy 0.0000–0.0093

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 25 310.69 ₴ −8 754.24 (−34.6%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 31%
Losing outcome 53%
Above the Steam cap 16%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 300.72 ₴ 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 700.66 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 856.97 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 193.26 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 401.56 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 986.65 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 921.32 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 725.87 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 964.72 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 045.85 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 574.14 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 515.27 ₴ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 366.80 ₴ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.82%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 389.21 ₴ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 986.60 ₴ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 986.21 ₴ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 195.08 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 574.14 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

66 800.35 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 229.83 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 609.12 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

201 124.20 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

64 231.84 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 777.87 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 735.55 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 885.69 ₴ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 868.95 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 218.94 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 515.78 ₴ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 819.41 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 421.29 ₴ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −3 292.89 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −3 067.17 ₴ historical median

8% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build