The Recoil Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −18 620.93₴

Invest at least 42 855.35₴

Average return 24 234.42₴

ROI −43.5%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest at least 42 855.35 ₴, profit at most −18 620.93 ₴

float premium: at least 22 476 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 922 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 3.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −8 154.94 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0100

15 130.26 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 5 153.61 ₴ +1 371.05 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

×1

AWP | Chrome Cannon

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0100

3 274.21 ₴

at 3 274.21

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New) — 5 062.82 ₴ +1 788.61 ₴ per item · on the market 159 · buy 0.0000–0.0080

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 404.47 ₴ +5 829.96 (+31.7%)

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 2.5% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 412 ₴

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈2

×3

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0107

11 347.69 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 5 153.61 ₴ +1 371.05 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0130

Steam

×2

AWP | Chrome Cannon

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0107

6 548.42 ₴

at 3 274.21

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New) — 5 062.82 ₴ +1 788.61 ₴ per item · on the market 159 · buy 0.0000–0.0085

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 17 896.11 ₴ +1 610.82 (+9.0%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 50%
Above the Steam cap 3%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 658.92 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 536.59 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 863.75 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 352.49 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 268.14 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 492.73 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 904.67 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 605.74 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

79 269.60 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 717.60 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 301.37 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

49 425.03 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 210.36 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

64 314.09 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 760.68 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 162.61 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 049.11 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 377.69 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

117 510.77 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 363.58 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

26 873.11 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 896.18 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 064.20 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

8 136.92 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

6 950.14 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 756.15 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 463.81 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

11 478.75 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 692.28 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 407.71 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 109.66 ₴ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 319.48 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

401.83 ₴ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 677.55 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 047.73 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife

no wear

4 158.66 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Recoil Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Kilowatt Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Kilowatt Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Kilowatt Collection Variant 6 The Shadow Collection instead of The Kilowatt Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4 643.11 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +5 634.94 ₴ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Kilowatt Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3274645 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 5 950.67₴ · invest 21 415.13₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 760 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.007467 instead of 0.010063
Craft 3274646 · The Recoil Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 5 950.67₴ · invest 21 415.13₴
profit on prices without salesat least −4 760 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.007467 instead of 0.010063
Craft 3274445 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 5 829.96₴ · invest 18 404.47₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 922 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3274163 · The Recoil Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 5 704.30₴ · invest 19 179.35₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 981 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)
Craft 3274165 · The Fever Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 5 704.30₴ · invest 19 179.35₴
profit on prices without salesat least −3 981 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Recoil Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build