The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −31 519.06₸

Invest 269 741.23₸

Average return 238 222.17₸

ROI −11.7%

Chance of profit 37%

With float: invest at least 613 529.54 ₸, profit at most −375 307.37 ₸

float premium: at least 323 937 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −170 788.36 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0100

150 675.48 ₸

at 37 668.87

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 51 322.52 ₸ +13 653.65 ₸ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

×1

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0100

119 065.75 ₸

at 119 065.75

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 237.96 ₸ +18 172.22 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0100

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 269 741.23 ₸ −31 519.06 (−11.7%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 19.3% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2

×1

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0124

37 668.87 ₸

at 37 668.87

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 51 322.52 ₸ +13 653.65 ₸ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0151

Steam

×4

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0124

476 262.99 ₸

at 119 065.75

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 237.96 ₸ +18 172.22 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 513 931.86 ₸ −426 299.57 (−83.0%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.5% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈2

×2

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0115

75 337.74 ₸

at 37 668.87

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 51 322.52 ₸ +13 653.65 ₸ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0140

Steam

×3

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0115

357 197.24 ₸

at 119 065.75

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 237.96 ₸ +18 172.22 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0115

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 432 534.98 ₸ −294 706.08 (−68.1%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.7% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈2

×3

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0107

113 006.61 ₸

at 37 668.87

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 51 322.52 ₸ +13 653.65 ₸ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0130

Steam

×2

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0107

238 131.49 ₸

at 119 065.75

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 237.96 ₸ +18 172.22 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0107

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 351 138.11 ₸ −163 112.60 (−46.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 55%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

96 188.86 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

274 224.64 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

68 353.04 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

103 095.80 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

321 343.96 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

104 492.38 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

88 677.63 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

324 706.03 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

789 410.57 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

186 400.22 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

351 550.56 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

492 201.81 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

380 519.91 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

640 475.34 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

226 663.44 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

429 837.15 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

448 623.98 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

292 559.34 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 170 237.29 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83 289.19 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

267 617.34 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

118 468.74 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

159 976.20 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

76 333.35 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

55 375.65 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

64 640.55 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

84 848.36 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

85 483.18 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

41 614.15 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 534.28 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 364.78 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 620.46 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers

no wear

32 848.46 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −43 159.14 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −33 382.89 ₸ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Recoil Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3274623 · The Shadow Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit −31 519.08₸ · invest 269 741.23₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build