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The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −3 443.15₸

Invest at least 8 308.93₸

Average return 4 865.78₸

ROI −41.4%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 8 308.93 ₸, profit at most −3 443.15 ₸

float premium: at least 4 871 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2, цена занижена

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

395.67 ₸

at 395.67

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 698.56 ₸ +302.89 ₸ per item · on the market 56 · buy 0.0000–0.0080
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 781.63 ₸ +385.96 ₸ per item · on the market 808 · buy 0.0000–0.0037
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 880.04 ₸ +484.36 ₸ per item · on the market 142 · buy 0.0000–0.0080

Steam

×9

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

2 834.33 ₸

at 314.93

if this one runs out, you can take

SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) — 375.31 ₸ +60.38 ₸ per item · on the market 3 867 · buy 0.0000–0.0004
FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) — 382.48 ₸ +67.55 ₸ per item · on the market 377 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 230.00 ₸ +1 635.78 (+50.6%)

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

1 978.36 ₸

at 395.67

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 698.56 ₸ +302.89 ₸ per item · on the market 56 · buy 0.0000–0.0098
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 781.63 ₸ +385.96 ₸ per item · on the market 808 · buy 0.0000–0.0045
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 880.04 ₸ +484.36 ₸ per item · on the market 142 · buy 0.0000–0.0098

Steam

×5

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

1 574.63 ₸

at 314.93

if this one runs out, you can take

SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) — 375.31 ₸ +60.38 ₸ per item · on the market 3 867 · buy 0.0000–0.0005
FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) — 382.48 ₸ +67.55 ₸ per item · on the market 377 · buy 0.0000–0.0103

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 552.98 ₸ +938.76 (+26.4%)

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

1 582.68 ₸

at 395.67

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 698.56 ₸ +302.89 ₸ per item · on the market 56 · buy 0.0000–0.0093
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 781.63 ₸ +385.96 ₸ per item · on the market 808 · buy 0.0000–0.0042
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 880.04 ₸ +484.36 ₸ per item · on the market 142 · buy 0.0000–0.0093

Steam

×6

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

1 889.55 ₸

at 314.93

if this one runs out, you can take

SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) — 375.31 ₸ +60.38 ₸ per item · on the market 3 867 · buy 0.0000–0.0004
FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) — 382.48 ₸ +67.55 ₸ per item · on the market 377 · buy 0.0000–0.0097

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 472.24 ₸ +1 113.00 (+32.0%)

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×3

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

1 187.01 ₸

at 395.67

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 698.56 ₸ +302.89 ₸ per item · on the market 56 · buy 0.0000–0.0088
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 781.63 ₸ +385.96 ₸ per item · on the market 808 · buy 0.0000–0.0040
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 880.04 ₸ +484.36 ₸ per item · on the market 142 · buy 0.0000–0.0088

Steam

×7

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

2 204.48 ₸

at 314.93

if this one runs out, you can take

SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) — 375.31 ₸ +60.38 ₸ per item · on the market 3 867 · buy 0.0000–0.0004
FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) — 382.48 ₸ +67.55 ₸ per item · on the market 377 · buy 0.0000–0.0093

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 391.49 ₸ +1 287.30 (+38.0%)

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

791.34 ₸

at 395.67

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 698.56 ₸ +302.89 ₸ per item · on the market 56 · buy 0.0000–0.0084
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 781.63 ₸ +385.96 ₸ per item · on the market 808 · buy 0.0000–0.0038
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 880.04 ₸ +484.36 ₸ per item · on the market 142 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×8

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

2 519.40 ₸

at 314.93

if this one runs out, you can take

SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) — 375.31 ₸ +60.38 ₸ per item · on the market 3 867 · buy 0.0000–0.0004
FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New) — 382.48 ₸ +67.55 ₸ per item · on the market 377 · buy 0.0000–0.0088

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 3 310.74 ₸ +1 461.54 (+44.1%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 94%
Losing outcome 4%
About break-even 2%

in profit

M4A1-S | Nitro

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 703.21 ₸ 90.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.008108

3 089.59 ₸ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 533.37 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.007026

3 862.39 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

2 313.81 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.146891

6 339.68 ₸ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Safehouse Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +743.44 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 156.38 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Safehouse Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3282704 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 1 788.96₸ · invest 3 181.15₸
pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.003860 instead of 0.005647
Craft 3313904 · The Safehouse Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 1 721.94₸ · invest 3 767.40₸
rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.004171 instead of 0.005647
Craft 3304956 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 1 646.53₸ · invest 3 264.82₸
G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005466 instead of 0.005647
Craft 3308192 · The Horizon Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 1 625.00₸ · invest 3 236.18₸
rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647
Craft 3313901 · The Safehouse Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 1 611.07₸ · invest 3 248.43₸
rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005515 instead of 0.005647

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Safehouse Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build