The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −973.47$

Invest at least 3 547.06$

Average return 2 573.59$

ROI −27.4%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 3 547.06 $, profit at most −973.47 $

float premium: at least 1 945 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +1 287.97 $ по средним

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −1 429.52 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈2

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

454.53 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

1 125.02 $

at 375.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.11 $ +175.10 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 579.55 $ +994.04 (+62.9%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

227.26 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

1 500.03 $

at 375.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.11 $ +175.10 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 727.29 $ +1 287.97 (+74.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈2

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

681.79 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

750.01 $

at 375.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.11 $ +175.10 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 431.81 $ +700.11 (+48.9%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 7.8% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

909.06 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

375.01 $

at 375.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.11 $ +175.10 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 284.06 $ +406.18 (+31.6%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 26%
Losing outcome 66%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

1 866.00 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

1 190.00 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 010.75 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

989.77 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 304.22 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700.17 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

890.95 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 413.23 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 294.70 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850.00 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

940.00 $ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 380.02 $ 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

749.11 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

670.40 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

851.62 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 153.51 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

655.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 450.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

763.64 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 162.92 $ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 140.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

520.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 885.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

825.34 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

489.72 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 298.31 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 300.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 000.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 300.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 385.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

510.83 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305.74 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

419.00 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

350.31 $ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Gallery Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +973.38 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +990.46 $ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 21 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3316227 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 1 072.20$ · invest 1 531.04$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316228 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 072.20$ · invest 1 531.04$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3315741 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 994.04$ · invest 1 579.55$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3316573 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 875.80$ · invest 1 383.79$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316574 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 875.80$ · invest 1 383.79$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316503 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 848.10$ · invest 1 422.82$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316504 · The Gamma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 848.10$ · invest 1 422.82$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316563 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 830.61$ · invest 1 390.23$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316564 · The Glove Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 830.61$ · invest 1 390.23$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3315667 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 825.96$ · invest 1 433.64$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3315668 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 825.96$ · invest 1 433.64$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3315885 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 820.37$ · invest 1 425.04$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006469 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3315886 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 820.37$ · invest 1 425.04$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006469 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316559 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 820.33$ · invest 1 342.67$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316560 · The Glove Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 820.33$ · invest 1 342.67$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316565 · The Spectrum Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 819.17$ · invest 1 401.67$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316566 · The Glove Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 819.17$ · invest 1 401.67$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316547 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 810.72$ · invest 1 365.05$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316548 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 810.72$ · invest 1 365.05$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316473 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 806.03$ · invest 1 464.89$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3316474 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 806.03$ · invest 1 464.89$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build