The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −462 042.14₸

Invest at least 1 737 098.49₸

Average return 1 275 056.34₸

ROI −26.6%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest at least 1 737 098.49 ₸, profit at most −462 042.14 ₸

float premium: at least 966 692 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 13.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −685 520.38 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

70 485.30 ₸

at 70 485.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.22 ₸ +29 307.92 ₸ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

670 126.96 ₸

at 167 531.74

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.55 ₸ +81 603.81 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 740 612.26 ₸ +534 444.08 (+72.2%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 14.8% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3

×4

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

281 941.21 ₸

at 70 485.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.22 ₸ +29 307.92 ₸ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

167 531.74 ₸

at 167 531.74

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.55 ₸ +81 603.81 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 449 472.95 ₸ −77 989.81 (−17.4%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 14.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

211 455.91 ₸

at 70 485.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.22 ₸ +29 307.92 ₸ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

335 063.48 ₸

at 167 531.74

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.55 ₸ +81 603.81 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 546 519.38 ₸ +126 154.82 (+23.1%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 13.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

140 970.60 ₸

at 70 485.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.22 ₸ +29 307.92 ₸ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

502 595.22 ₸

at 167 531.74

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.55 ₸ +81 603.81 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 643 565.82 ₸ +330 299.45 (+51.3%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 27%
Losing outcome 60%
Above the Steam cap 13%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 188.07 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305 948.63 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 603.41 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

522 295.61 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

296 576.19 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 467 695.09 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

348 515.63 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

987 758.28 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

516 178.41 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

235 449.83 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

853 505.57 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

207 797.99 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 946 499.80 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 266 691.20 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 133 502.53 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 494 200.72 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 682 873.42 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

328 739.88 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

139 151.55 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 298.75 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

159 980.55 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

103 319.87 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

134 189.89 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

136 463.53 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

70 823.53 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

163 747.00 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 285.72 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

44 980.34 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

135 836.41 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

65 636.18 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 799.26 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

51 197.09 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Arms Deal 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +529 122.55 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +533 584.97 ₸ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 13 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3358477 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 560 897.09₸ · invest 738 876.26₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3358478 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 560 897.09₸ · invest 738 876.26₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3359025 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 559 736.66₸ · invest 760 688.05₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3359026 · The Glove Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 559 736.66₸ · invest 760 688.05₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3358039 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 555 112.62₸ · invest 748 204.34₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007490 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3358040 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 555 112.62₸ · invest 748 204.34₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007490 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3358343 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 549 499.41₸ · invest 750 273.94₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006609 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3358344 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 549 499.41₸ · invest 750 273.94₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006609 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3358811 · The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 534 444.10₸ · invest 740 612.26₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3359061 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 522 417.18₸ · invest 780 899.77₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3359062 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 522 417.18₸ · invest 780 899.77₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3359019 · The Horizon Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 519 106.14₸ · invest 765 707.40₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3359020 · The Glove Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 519 106.14₸ · invest 765 707.40₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build