The Revolution Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −36 390.50₴

Invest at least 98 145.03₴

Average return 61 754.53₴

ROI −37.1%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest at least 98 145.03 ₴, profit at most −36 390.50 ₴

float premium: at least 53 054 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +26 928.93 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 2.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −33 747.64 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈5

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

18 062.24 ₴

at 4 515.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 4 598.87 ₴ +83.31 ₴ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×1

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

25 661.03 ₴

at 25 661.03

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 31 547.39 ₴ +5 886.36 ₴ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 43 723.27 ₴ +18 031.26 (+41.2%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 10.0% of the chance

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×1

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

4 515.56 ₴

at 4 515.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 4 598.87 ₴ +83.31 ₴ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×4

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

102 644.12 ₴

at 25 661.03

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 31 547.39 ₴ +5 886.36 ₴ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 107 159.68 ₴ +26 928.93 (+25.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 7.5% of the chance

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈5

×2

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

9 031.12 ₴

at 4 515.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 4 598.87 ₴ +83.31 ₴ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×3

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

76 983.09 ₴

at 25 661.03

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 31 547.39 ₴ +5 886.36 ₴ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 86 014.21 ₴ +23 963.04 (+27.9%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 5.0% of the chance

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈5

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

13 546.68 ₴

at 4 515.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 4 598.87 ₴ +83.31 ₴ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

51 322.06 ₴

at 25 661.03

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 31 547.39 ₴ +5 886.36 ₴ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 64 868.74 ₴ +20 997.15 (+32.4%)

What you get 48 outcomes

Profitable outcome 28%
Losing outcome 62%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 2%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 079.25 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 272.26 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 120.45 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 755.99 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 932.46 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 986.19 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 541.76 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 710.03 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

51 199.85 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

89 332.54 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 857.20 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 653.15 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 067.90 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 590.85 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 278.64 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

28 932.90 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 430.15 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

252 214.47 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

89 751.99 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 575.86 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 199.48 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 860.85 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 663.90 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 349.26 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 042.59 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

30 706.51 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 701.06 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 420.16 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 765.85 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

247 670.06 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 978.75 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

99 136.30 ₴ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

51 806.21 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 630.91 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 662.03 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 855.63 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

195 360.33 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 331 510.60 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

414 858.71 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

149 965.36 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

971 820.96 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 993.96 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 965.94 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 099.32 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 056.44 ₴ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Revolution Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +16 381.63 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17 821.66 ₴ historical median

1% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Hydra Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3359222 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 18 031.26₴ · invest 43 723.27₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Revolution Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 48 outcomes

More

How to build