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Crafts · The Danger Zone Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

$≈

The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +138.74$

Invest 168.66$

Average return 307.39$

ROI +82.3%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 434.16 $, profit at most −126.77 $

float premium: at least 248 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −169 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 9 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

148.65 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0078
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0104

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1714

20.00 $

at 20.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) — 36.96 $ +16.96 $ per item · on the market 58 · buy 0.1500–0.1818
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear) — 51.51 $ +31.51 $ per item · on the market 3 · buy 0.0700–0.1218

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 168.66 $ +138.74 (+82.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −389 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

82.59 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0052
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0070

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

134.32 $

at 44.77

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) — 60.03 $ +15.25 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0908
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) — 86.27 $ +41.49 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0000–0.0533

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

172.53 $

at 86.27

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New) — 106.30 $ +20.04 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0061
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) — 199.91 $ +113.64 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0200–0.0258

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 389.44 $ +14.34 (+3.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −320 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

99.10 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0051
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0068

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

134.32 $

at 44.77

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) — 60.03 $ +15.25 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0907
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) — 86.27 $ +41.49 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0000–0.0532

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0042

86.27 $

at 86.27

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New) — 106.30 $ +20.04 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0060
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) — 199.91 $ +113.64 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0200–0.0256

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 319.69 $ +59.99 (+18.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −250 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

115.62 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0050
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0066

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

134.32 $

at 44.77

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) — 60.03 $ +15.25 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0906
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) — 86.27 $ +41.49 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0000–0.0531

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 249.94 $ +105.64 (+42.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −212 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 8 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

132.14 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0046
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0062

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

20.00 $

at 20.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) — 36.96 $ +16.96 $ per item · on the market 58 · buy 0.1500–0.1738
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Minimal Wear) — 51.51 $ +31.51 $ per item · on the market 3 · buy 0.0700–0.1158

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

60.03 $

at 60.03

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) — 86.27 $ +26.24 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0000–0.0410
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New) — 106.30 $ +46.28 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0576

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 212.17 $ +119.32 (+56.2%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

in profit

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

562.31 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir

Factory New

float up to 0.015384

89.27 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

440.02 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

765.81 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Danger Zone Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Danger Zone Collection Variant 6 The Fever Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +122.39 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +136.43 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Danger Zone Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3384217 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 145.71$ · invest 166.23$
profit on prices without salesat least −147 $ marketplace price rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.007408 instead of 0.006513
Craft 3383669 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 135.51$ · invest 163.13$
profit on prices without salesat least −163 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.007408 instead of 0.006513

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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