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Crafts · The Falchion Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

$≈

The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +24.25$

Invest 90.85$

Average return 115.10$

ROI +26.7%

Chance of profit 45%

With float: invest at least 233.97 $, profit at most −118.87 $

float premium: at least 118 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −87 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1676

10.57 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1676
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0536

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1676

80.28 $

at 8.92

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) — 11.26 $ +2.34 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.1500–0.2095
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) — 17.97 $ +9.05 $ per item · on the market 61 · buy 0.1500–0.1885

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 90.85 $ +24.25 (+26.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −79 $

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1785

42.29 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1785
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0571

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1785

53.52 $

at 8.92

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) — 11.26 $ +2.34 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.1500–0.2231
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) — 17.97 $ +9.05 $ per item · on the market 61 · buy 0.1500–0.2008

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 95.81 $ +5.63 (+5.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −82 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1747

31.72 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1747
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0559

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1747

62.44 $

at 8.92

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) — 11.26 $ +2.34 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.1500–0.2184
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) — 17.97 $ +9.05 $ per item · on the market 61 · buy 0.1500–0.1966

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 94.16 $ +11.84 (+12.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −84 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1711

21.15 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1711
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0547

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1711

71.36 $

at 8.92

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) — 11.26 $ +2.34 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.1500–0.2138
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) — 17.97 $ +9.05 $ per item · on the market 61 · buy 0.1500–0.1925

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 92.50 $ +18.04 (+19.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −74 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3839

8.37 $

at 8.37

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) — 9.94 $ +1.57 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.3800–0.3839
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) — 16.21 $ +7.84 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1228

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

42.29 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1628
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0521

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

44.60 $

at 8.92

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) — 11.26 $ +2.34 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.1500–0.2035
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) — 17.97 $ +9.05 $ per item · on the market 61 · buy 0.1500–0.1832

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 95.26 $ +1.63 (+1.7%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

82.17 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122653

193.04 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Field-Tested

float up to 0.205339

96.57 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

float up to 0.205339

73.91 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 5 The Recoil Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Revolution Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −1.07 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17.04 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Gallery Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3389774 · The Gallery Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 23.75$ · invest 96.00$
profit on prices without salesat least −93 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.170515 instead of 0.167624
Craft 3390238 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 23.34$ · invest 93.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −94 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)
Craft 3390345 · The Gallery Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 22.27$ · invest 98.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −91 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169384 instead of 0.167624

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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