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Crafts · The Falchion Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

$≈

The Falchion Collection + The Prisma Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +25.34$

Invest 71.78$

Average return 97.13$

ROI +35.3%

Chance of profit 50%

With float: invest at least 172.51 $, profit at most −75.38 $

float premium: at least 99 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3878

8.37 $

at 8.37

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) — 9.94 $ +1.57 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.3800–0.3878
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) — 16.21 $ +7.84 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1241

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3878

18.97 $

at 6.32

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.08 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3213
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) — 11.09 $ +4.76 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.3800–0.4455

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1757

44.44 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2885
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1165

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 71.78 $ +25.34 (+35.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −12 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3880

25.11 $

at 8.37

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) — 9.94 $ +1.57 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.3800–0.3880
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) — 16.21 $ +7.84 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1241

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1764

21.15 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1764
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0564

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1764

37.04 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2893
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1179

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 83.29 $ +3.61 (+4.3%)

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3870

16.74 $

at 8.37

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) — 9.94 $ +1.57 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.3800–0.3870
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) — 16.21 $ +7.84 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1238

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3870

12.65 $

at 6.32

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.08 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3209
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) — 11.09 $ +4.76 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.3800–0.4451

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1732

44.44 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2858
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1119

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 73.83 $ +20.74 (+28.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3855

33.48 $

at 8.37

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) — 9.94 $ +1.57 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.3800–0.3855
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) — 16.21 $ +7.84 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1233

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1682

44.44 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2805
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1026

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 77.92 $ +11.54 (+14.8%)

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3839

25.11 $

at 8.37

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn) — 9.94 $ +1.57 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.3800–0.3839
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) — 16.21 $ +7.84 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1228

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4808

5.92 $

at 5.92

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.48 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3713
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) — 9.94 $ +4.02 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.4500–0.4994

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1629

44.44 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2747
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.0926

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 75.48 $ +16.54 (+21.9%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.131249

75.03 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

154.24 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Field-Tested

float up to 0.187499

96.57 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

float up to 0.187499

73.91 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Prisma Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Prisma Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Shadow Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Recoil Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 only The Prisma Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.96 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +19.23 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Prisma Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3385012 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 27.68$ · invest 68.46$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385340 instead of 0.387830; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167546 instead of 0.175728
Craft 3397630 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 27.11$ · invest 69.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385744 instead of 0.387830; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168876 instead of 0.175728
Craft 3390653 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 26.67$ · invest 74.54$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384218 instead of 0.387830; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163860 instead of 0.175728
Craft 3397632 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 25.97$ · invest 69.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)
Craft 3391890 · The Genesis Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 25.21$ · invest 72.62$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385340 instead of 0.387830; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167546 instead of 0.175728

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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