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Crafts · The Falchion Collection

prices updated 24.10 13:23 MSK

₽

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −21 215.19₽

Invest at least 53 626.58₽

Average return 32 411.39₽

ROI −39.6%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest at least 53 626.58 ₽, profit at most −21 215.19 ₽

float premium: at least 29 590 ₽

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +13 490.30 ₽ по средним

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −5 498 ₽

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −5 579.30 ₽

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

15 464.05 ₽

at 2 209.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 3 998.87 ₽ +1 789.72 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0120
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 6 119.10 ₽ +3 909.95 ₽ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0120

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

6 280.20 ₽

at 2 093.40

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +4 006.59 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0558
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +5 958.01 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0372

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 21 744.25 ₽ +10 667.14 (+49.1%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

2 209.15 ₽

at 2 209.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 3 998.87 ₽ +1 789.72 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0243
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 6 119.10 ₽ +3 909.95 ₽ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0243

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0788

6 280.20 ₽

at 2 093.40

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +4 006.59 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0591
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +5 958.01 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0394

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

34 620.54 ₽

at 5 770.09

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +329.90 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0058
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +2 281.32 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0038

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 43 109.89 ₽ +13 490.30 (+31.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

4 418.30 ₽

at 2 209.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 3 998.87 ₽ +1 789.72 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0207
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 6 119.10 ₽ +3 909.95 ₽ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0207

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

6 280.20 ₽

at 2 093.40

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +4 006.59 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0582
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +5 958.01 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0388

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

28 850.45 ₽

at 5 770.09

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +329.90 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0049
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +2 281.32 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0033

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 39 548.95 ₽ +13 019.77 (+32.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

6 627.45 ₽

at 2 209.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 3 998.87 ₽ +1 789.72 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0181
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 6 119.10 ₽ +3 909.95 ₽ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0181

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

6 280.20 ₽

at 2 093.40

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +4 006.59 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0574
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +5 958.01 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0383

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

23 080.36 ₽

at 5 770.09

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +329.90 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0043
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +2 281.32 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0029

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 35 988.01 ₽ +12 549.24 (+34.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

8 836.60 ₽

at 2 209.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 3 998.87 ₽ +1 789.72 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0161
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 6 119.10 ₽ +3 909.95 ₽ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0161

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

6 280.20 ₽

at 2 093.40

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +4 006.59 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0569
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +5 958.01 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0379

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

17 310.27 ₽

at 5 770.09

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New) — 6 099.99 ₽ +329.90 ₽ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0038
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) — 8 051.41 ₽ +2 281.32 ₽ per item · on the market 12 · buy 0.0000–0.0025

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 32 427.07 ₽ +12 078.72 (+37.2%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 15%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 35%

about break-even

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

25 354.50 ₽ 35.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

21 374.57 ₽ 35.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

110 519.98 ₽ 15.00%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental

Factory New

float up to 0.018461

14 896.79 ₽ 15.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +7 704.35 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +9 796.14 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3395359 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 13 633.54₽ · invest 16 150.90₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078045 instead of 0.074412
Craft 3381304 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12 875.88₽ · invest 18 399.86₽
profit on prices without salesat least −2 153 ₽ marketplace price rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078917 instead of 0.074412
Craft 3389347 · The Fracture Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12 060.17₽ · invest 12 470.09₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076405 instead of 0.074412
Craft 3398949 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 11 573.76₽ · invest 14 402.37₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078314 instead of 0.074412
Craft 3378267 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10 813.12₽ · invest 15 550.30₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075334 instead of 0.074412

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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