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The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +41.09$

Invest 48.17$

Average return 89.26$

ROI +85.3%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest at least 125.21 $, profit at most −35.95 $

float premium: at least 59 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −44 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

3.15 $

at 3.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) — 5.56 $ +2.40 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0115
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.27 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0115
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) — 8.93 $ +5.78 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0115

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0857

45.02 $

at 5.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) — 7.52 $ +2.52 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0700–0.0701
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) — 7.71 $ +2.71 $ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.1000–0.1021
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) — 9.01 $ +4.00 $ per item · on the market 21 · buy 0.0000–0.0054

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 48.17 $ +41.09 (+85.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −31 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

22.07 $

at 3.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) — 5.56 $ +2.40 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0127
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.27 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0127
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) — 8.93 $ +5.78 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0127

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0863

15.01 $

at 5.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) — 7.52 $ +2.52 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0700–0.0712
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) — 7.71 $ +2.71 $ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.1000–0.1024
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) — 9.01 $ +4.00 $ per item · on the market 21 · buy 0.0000–0.0060

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 37.08 $ +4.32 (+11.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −33 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

18.92 $

at 3.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) — 5.56 $ +2.40 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0125
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.27 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0125
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) — 8.93 $ +5.78 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0125

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0862

20.01 $

at 5.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) — 7.52 $ +2.52 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0700–0.0710
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) — 7.71 $ +2.71 $ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.1000–0.1023
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) — 9.01 $ +4.00 $ per item · on the market 21 · buy 0.0000–0.0059

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 38.93 $ +10.45 (+26.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −35 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

15.77 $

at 3.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) — 5.56 $ +2.40 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0123
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.27 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0123
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) — 8.93 $ +5.78 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0123

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0861

25.01 $

at 5.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) — 7.52 $ +2.52 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0700–0.0708
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) — 7.71 $ +2.71 $ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.1000–0.1023
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) — 9.01 $ +4.00 $ per item · on the market 21 · buy 0.0000–0.0058

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 40.78 $ +16.58 (+40.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −37 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

12.61 $

at 3.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) — 5.56 $ +2.40 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0121
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.27 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0121
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) — 8.93 $ +5.78 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0860

30.01 $

at 5.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) — 7.52 $ +2.52 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0700–0.0706
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) — 7.71 $ +2.71 $ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.1000–0.1023
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) — 9.01 $ +4.00 $ per item · on the market 21 · buy 0.0000–0.0057

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 42.62 $ +22.70 (+53.3%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 18%
Losing outcome 82%

at a loss

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

26.36 $ 18.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

474.15 $ 18.00%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.002702

13.69 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

11.05 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P90 | Virus

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33.86 $ 18.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence

Factory New

float up to 0.010810

31.67 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate

Factory New

float up to 0.008243

11.16 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

41.67 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian

Factory New

float up to 0.006081

8.02 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ MP7 | Impire

Factory New

float up to 0.005405

7.93 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 only The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +32.85 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +38.94 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Wildfire Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3396710 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 40.81$ · invest 49.59$
profit on prices without salesat least −45 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New); StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085941 instead of 0.085767
Craft 3373919 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 40.27$ · invest 51.12$
profit on prices without salesat least −46 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New); StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085457 instead of 0.085767
Craft 3374234 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 39.15$ · invest 50.72$
profit on prices without salesat least −46 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New); StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085294 instead of 0.085767
Craft 3396394 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 37.50$ · invest 54.03$
profit on prices without salesat least −48 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New); StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.085851 instead of 0.085767

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build