The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −41 776.63₴

Invest at least 50 598.31₴

Average return 8 821.68₴

ROI −82.6%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 50 598.31 ₴, profit at most −41 776.63 ₴

float premium: at least 27 741 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: −13 300.41 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −15 493.70 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0094

12 167.80 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0146

Steam

×2

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0094

10 452.07 ₴

at 5 226.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 678.23 ₴ +452.20 ₴ per item · on the market 87 · buy 0.0000–0.0117

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 619.87 ₴ −13 798.19 (−61.0%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0098

8 111.87 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0153

Steam

×3

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0098

15 678.11 ₴

at 5 226.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 678.23 ₴ +452.20 ₴ per item · on the market 87 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 23 789.98 ₴ −13 300.41 (−55.9%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0090

16 223.73 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0140

Steam

×1

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0090

5 226.04 ₴

at 5 226.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 678.23 ₴ +452.20 ₴ per item · on the market 87 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 449.77 ₴ −14 295.97 (−66.7%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 8%
Losing outcome 78%
Above the Steam cap 14%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 416.75 ₴ 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 921.76 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 964.58 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 166.99 ₴ 4.62%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 630.12 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 055.61 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 000.70 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 775.43 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 058.19 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 024.25 ₴ 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

81 798.95 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

36 946.11 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

76 099.68 ₴ 1.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

53 658.71 ₴ 1.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

38 377.88 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

32 038.27 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 908.01 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

5 104.27 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

7 269.66 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

8 941.58 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 699.40 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

4 360.71 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

5 087.99 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

2 786.80 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 723.16 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

4 250.07 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

3 104.61 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

2 399.45 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 322.72 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

3 707.77 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 344.70 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

7 699.10 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 318.61 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 307.79 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

11 134.08 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

4 120.44 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

7 263.37 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

9 036.61 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 966.47 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 717.93 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 3 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 12 167.80 → 27 499.23 ₴

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) × 2 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 10 452.07 → 23 099.08 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.013513414

outcomes come out up to 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −14 743.67 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −13 995.57 ₴ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build