The Glove Collection + The Shadow Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +460 478.12₸

Invest 803 198.27₸

Average return 1 263 676.39₸

ROI +57.3%

Chance of profit 27%

With float: invest at least 1 875 012.65 ₸, profit at most −611 336.26 ₸

float premium: at least 1 055 787 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 14.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −751 994.23 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

683 436.05 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

×1

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

119 762.22 ₸

at 119 762.22

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 138 071.53 ₸ +18 309.31 ₸ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 803 198.27 ₸ +460 478.12 (+57.3%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 21.0% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

170 859.01 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

×4

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

479 048.88 ₸

at 119 762.22

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 138 071.53 ₸ +18 309.31 ₸ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 649 907.89 ₸ −307 240.04 (−47.3%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 18.8% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

341 718.02 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×3

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

359 286.66 ₸

at 119 762.22

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 138 071.53 ₸ +18 309.31 ₸ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 701 004.69 ₸ −51 334.01 (−7.3%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 16.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

512 577.04 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

×2

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

239 524.44 ₸

at 119 762.22

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 138 071.53 ₸ +18 309.31 ₸ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 752 101.48 ₸ +204 572.08 (+27.2%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 23%
Losing outcome 59%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 15%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 123.99 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305 948.51 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 530.54 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

522 196.93 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

296 520.17 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 467 228.96 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

348 515.49 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

987 674.55 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

516 080.91 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

235 405.31 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

853 344.34 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

207 797.91 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 923 985.90 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 264 185.01 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 025 431.16 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 493 918.43 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 681 039.75 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

328 739.75 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

139 151.49 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 298.67 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

159 966.99 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

76 325.16 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

55 848.28 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 462.83 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

50 453.98 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

87 114.10 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 192.15 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 338.66 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 923.90 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 665.73 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers

no wear

34 866.42 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Glove Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Recoil Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +455 081.85 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +459 658.04 ₸ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Glove Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402447 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 480 097.04₸ · invest 803 996.59₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) instead of USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)
Craft 3402448 · The Glove Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit 480 097.04₸ · invest 803 996.59₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) instead of USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)
Craft 3402461 · The Shadow Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 460 478.15₸ · invest 803 198.27₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Glove Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build