The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −8 323.12₴

Invest 20 864.40₴

Average return 12 541.28₴

ROI −39.9%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest at least 47 153.82 ₴, profit at most −34 612.55 ₴

float premium: at least 25 513 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −11 338.94 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0828

10 179.13 ₴

at 2 544.78

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 30 427.34 ₴ +27 882.56 ₴ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.1295

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0828

10 685.27 ₴

at 10 685.27

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) — 13 844.87 ₴ +3 159.60 ₴ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0000–0.0450

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 20 864.40 ₴ −8 323.12 (−39.9%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 17%
Losing outcome 75%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

12 322.97 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

10 556.88 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

5 235.41 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

6 195.50 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

11 144.37 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 837.65 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 194.02 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

7 139.81 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 505.46 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 548.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 966.40 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 141.33 ₴ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

88 329.52 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

64 517.76 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

54 030.00 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

33 599.59 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

52 829.24 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

19 902.70 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

29 105.25 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

68 664.82 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

38 973.11 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

32 674.27 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

24 340.86 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

30 755.90 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

47 181.89 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −9 223.67 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −8 495.42 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3404491 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 323.12₴ · invest 20 864.40₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build