The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −315.80$

Invest 534.95$

Average return 219.15$

ROI −59.0%

Chance of profit 14%

With float: invest at least 1 170.48 $, profit at most −951.33 $

float premium: at least 603 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 27.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −382.17 $

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0779

235.18 $

at 235.18

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) — 304.72 $ +69.54 $ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0000–0.0423

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0779

112.02 $

at 56.01

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 669.68 $ +613.68 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.1217

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0069

187.76 $

at 93.88

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 1 140.51 $ +1 046.63 $ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 534.95 $ −315.80 (−59.0%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 24.6% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0786

421.10 $

at 210.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) — 235.18 $ +24.62 $ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0700–0.1446

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

281.64 $

at 93.88

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 1 140.51 $ +1 046.63 $ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 702.74 $ −351.61 (−50.0%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 21.5% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

210.55 $

at 210.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) — 235.18 $ +24.62 $ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0700–0.1442

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

470.35 $

at 235.18

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) — 304.72 $ +69.54 $ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0000–0.0425

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0073

187.76 $

at 93.88

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 1 140.51 $ +1 046.63 $ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0114

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 868.66 $ −385.54 (−44.4%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0779

940.70 $

at 235.18

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) — 304.72 $ +69.54 $ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0000–0.0423

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0069

93.88 $

at 93.88

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 1 140.51 $ +1 046.63 $ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0109

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 034.58 $ −419.48 (−40.5%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 12%
Losing outcome 58%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 28%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.005599

271.22 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.027499

232.35 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

84.46 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

180.34 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

157.14 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

99.16 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

78.09 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

109.31 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

91.15 $ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.005599

1 944.07 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.027499

1 419.99 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

827.76 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

438.04 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

640.59 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

1 511.26 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

857.77 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

719.14 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

535.73 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

676.92 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 038.44 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 235.18 → 507.98 $

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 2 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 112.02 → 247.56 $

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 2 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 187.76 → 414.95 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.069999900

outcomes come out up to 0.005599, 0.027499, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.000000, 0.005599, 0.027499, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −332.15 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −318.54 $ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3405930 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −314.13$ · invest 460.72$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079363 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008192 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3405941 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −314.13$ · invest 460.72$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079363 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008192 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3409307 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −314.94$ · invest 439.77$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.086310 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.014271 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3409315 · The Wildfire Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit −314.94$ · invest 439.77$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.086310 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.014271 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3404485 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −315.80$ · invest 534.95$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3405562 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit −317.12$ · invest 463.71$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.087248 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.015092 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3405573 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −317.12$ · invest 463.71$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.087248 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.015092 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3409322 · The eSports 2013 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −326.10$ · invest 492.32$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076639 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005809 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3409329 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit −326.10$ · invest 492.32$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076639 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005809 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3409337 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −344.06$ · invest 468.88$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084955 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.013086 instead of 0.006948
Craft 3409345 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit −344.06$ · invest 468.88$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.084955 instead of 0.077941; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.013086 instead of 0.006948

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build