The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −14 587.35₴

Invest 18 699.24₴

Average return 4 111.89₴

ROI −78.0%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 41 669.99 ₴, profit at most −37 558.09 ₴

float premium: at least 20 236 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 29.2% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1805

3 358.12 ₴

at 3 358.12

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) — 4 910.09 ₴ +1 551.97 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.1500–0.1805

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0806

2 544.78 ₴

at 2 544.78

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 30 427.34 ₴ +27 882.56 ₴ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.1259

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0092

12 796.33 ₴

at 4 265.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 51 819.61 ₴ +47 554.17 ₴ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0145

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 699.24 ₴ −14 587.35 (−78.0%)

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 24.6% of the chance

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0830

26 176.64 ₴

at 6 544.16

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) — 9 159.22 ₴ +2 615.06 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0700–0.0830

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0114

4 265.44 ₴

at 4 265.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 51 819.61 ₴ +47 554.17 ₴ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0178

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 30 442.08 ₴ −25 876.64 (−85.0%)

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 26.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1726

3 358.12 ₴

at 3 358.12

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) — 4 910.09 ₴ +1 551.97 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.1500–0.1726

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0778

13 088.32 ₴

at 6 544.16

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) — 9 159.22 ₴ +2 615.06 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0700–0.0778

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

8 530.89 ₴

at 4 265.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 51 819.61 ₴ +47 554.17 ₴ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0107

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 24 977.33 ₴ −20 563.07 (−82.3%)

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 27.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1645

6 716.25 ₴

at 3 358.12

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) — 4 910.09 ₴ +1 551.97 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.1500–0.1645

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

12 796.33 ₴

at 4 265.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 51 819.61 ₴ +47 554.17 ₴ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0069

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 512.58 ₴ −15 249.51 (−78.2%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 71%
Above the Steam cap 29%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.005599

12 322.97 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.027499

10 556.88 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

3 837.65 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

8 194.02 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

7 139.81 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

4 505.46 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

3 548.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

4 966.40 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 141.33 ₴ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

best

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.005599

13 676.79 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.027499

12 867.18 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 964.58 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

3 502.81 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

3 736.78 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

4 726.76 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

3 877.04 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

3 729.56 ₴ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

4 665.95 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

6 765.99 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 1 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 3 358.12 → 7 253.55 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 1 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 2 544.78 → 5 496.73 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 3 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 12 796.33 → 28 919.71 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.069999900

outcomes come out up to 0.005599, 0.027499, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.000000, 0.005599, 0.027499, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.111799, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −14 992.67 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −14 652.32 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3408301 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit −13 275.88₴ · invest 19 630.89₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3408319 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −13 275.88₴ · invest 19 630.89₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3407885 · The Wildfire Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit −13 831.16₴ · invest 18 815.90₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3407893 · The Horizon Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −13 831.16₴ · invest 18 815.90₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3408481 · The Wildfire Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit −13 944.02₴ · invest 19 615.57₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083129 instead of 0.080612; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.011488 instead of 0.009286
Craft 3408489 · The Phoenix Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −13 944.02₴ · invest 19 615.57₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083129 instead of 0.080612; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.011488 instead of 0.009286
Craft 3409013 · The Wildfire Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit −14 122.32₴ · invest 18 727.76₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3409021 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 122.32₴ · invest 18 727.76₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)
Craft 3403763 · The Wildfire Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit −14 292.81₴ · invest 19 964.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074277 instead of 0.080612; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.003742 instead of 0.009286
Craft 3403771 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 292.81₴ · invest 19 964.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074277 instead of 0.080612; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.003742 instead of 0.009286
Craft 3406669 · The Wildfire Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −14 587.34₴ · invest 18 699.24₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build